2003/04 Winter Energy Market Assessment November 13, 2003 Office of Market Oversight and Investigations Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Progress is being made on issues identified by OMOI in earlier assessments. Concerns in previous assessments November 2003 status Deteriorating financial conditions $60 billion of market cap gained by major market participants in 2003 Credit deratings have slowed Managing credit exposure More than $30 billion of stressed debt refinanced (only one companys debt defaulted) Continued credit clearing initiatives with mixed results, reducing capital requirements Shaken confidence in price discovery FERC Policy Statement (July 2003) Revised trade press procedures ICE-initiated price reporting Continuing potential for manipulation Isolated incidents Strained natural gas supply Improved conditions going into the heating season due to record refill of storage 2
After a decade of low prices, natural gas prices are now more volatile at a higher level. $9 $8 Price ($/MMBtu) $7 $6 $5 Monthly price (real 2003 dollars) $4 $3 $2 $1 Monthly price (nominal dollars) Futures strip (from Nov. 5, 2003) $0 Sources: Nymex, EIA and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data current through May 2003. 3 Long-term supply uncertainty keeps up prices e.g., NPC study shows prices likely to remain high through 2025. Annual Average Henry Hub Prices $8.00 Price ($/MMBtu, $2002) $7.00 $6.00 Reactive Path $5.00 $4.00
Balanced Future $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: National Petroleum Council, Balancing Natural Gas Policy: Fueling the Demands of a Growing Economy, September 2003. 4 Natural gas storage rebound significantly improved the prospects for winter 2003/04. Stronger storage position than anticipated, mitigating prices Storage position criticalrelationship with price Protection comes at a cost Relative cost depends on weather Use of storage over the last two years has pushed the upper and lower limits of capacity 3,500 3,000 Volume (Bcf) 2,500 2,000 5-year range (98/99-02/03) 1,500
2003-04 1,000 2002-03 500 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: EIA, Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report. Data through week ending October 31, 2003. 5 Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility. 5-year average storage Henry Hub weekly average spot prices ($/MMBtu) $12
$10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf) Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA. 6 Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility. 5-year average storage Henry Hub weekly average spot prices ($/MMBtu) $12 $10
$8 Feb 2003 $6 $4 $2 $0 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf) Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA. 7 Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility. 5-year average storage Henry Hub weekly average spot prices ($/MMBtu) $12 $10
$8 Feb 2003 Mar 2003 $6 $4 $2 $0 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf) Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA. 8 Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility. 5-year average storage Henry Hub weekly average spot prices ($/MMBtu)
$12 $10 $8 Feb 2003 Mar 2003 $6 $4 Apr-Oct 2003 $2 $0 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf) Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA. 9 But forward prices indicate that resulting
storage inventory costs may be high. $5.80 $5.60 Price ($/MMBtu) $5.40 Estimated cost of gas in storage = $5.25 $5.20 $5.00 $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 Heating season strip (Nov. 5, 2003) Difference between cost of gas in storage and futures strip (Nov. 5, 2003) Next injection season strip (Nov. 5, 2003) $4.20 $4.00 Source: Platts Gas Daily, Nymex, and EIA. Cost of gas in storage is estimated using the volume-weighted average Henry Hub weekly gas prices over the 2003 injection cycle and does not reflect holding costs. 10 Last winter, storage inventory costs were relatively low. $18 $16 Price ($/MMBtu) $14 Average cash price of
gas during heating season = $5.49 $12 $10 Heating season daily cash prices $8 $6 $4 Estimated cost of gas in storage = $3.33 $2 $0 N 2 -0 v o Difference between cost of gas in storage and cash prices D 02 ec 3 -0 n Ja 3 03 -0 r b a
M Fe 3 -0 r Ap M 3 -0 y a 3 -0 n Ju 3 -0 l Ju 3 -0 g Au 03 p Se O 3 -0 t c Source: Platts Gas Daily and EIA. Cost of gas in storage is estimated using the volume-weighted average Henry Hub weekly gas prices over the 2003 injection cycle and does not reflect holding costs.
11 Weather for winter 2003/04 is the key shortterm uncertainty regarding natural gas. In an extreme cold-weather scenario, prices are higher and volatile Storage drained with high consumption Heating oil prices remain high, discouraging fuel switching Resulting storage inventory costs lower than wholesale prices In an extreme warm-weather scenario, wholesale prices drop but retail prices remain relatively higher Late-winter storage withdrawals required for physical operations Storage competition with production forces down prices Resulting storage inventory costs raise average retail costs through winter Weather is unpredictable For example, Northeast weather intensity (cumulative HDDs) over the last decade varied by 40%. 12 Weather for winter 2003/04 is the key shortterm uncertainty regarding natural gas. Cold winter in the Northeast resulted in large storage draw-down. 1,600 2002-2003 93% of variation in storage draw-down is explained by cumulative HDDs Storage draw-down (Bcf) 1,500 1995-1996 2 (R coefficient = 0.929) 1,400
2000-2001 1996-1997 1,300 1999-2000 1994-1995 1,200 2001-2002 1997-1998 1998-1999 1,100 1,000 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 Cumulative heating degree days (HDDs) 4,400 Sources: HDD data for NYC LaGuardia from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (www.CME.com). Storage data for Eastern Consuming region from EIA/AGA. Notes: Cumulative HDDs measured from Nov-1 through Mar-31. Storage draw-down measured from Nov-1 through Mar-31. 13 In general, winter natural gas system flexibility has declined. Higher reliance on baseload gas-fired electric generation
56 GW of new combined cycle generation added since 2002 Equivalent of ~4.7 Bcfd (about 56% of typical winter peak demand) Low levels of demand elasticity Feedstock fuel switching Estimates of fuel switching capability as low as 510% of total industrial gas demand Electric generation fuel switching Dual-fueled units available in few regions Fuel switching capability estimates as high as 30% of total gas-fired power generation, but actual capability may be limited by: Access to alternate fuels Warranty restrictions on using alternate fuels in newer vintage turbines Environmental restrictions Source: New generation data from EIA. Equivalent gas demand estimate based on 50% capacity factor. 14 In general, winter natural gas system flexibility has declined. (contd) During peak demand, or in cases of equipment failure, transmission congestion could occur. Basis differentials increase in the market area during cold weather. February Price Spike Study showed that pipeline and distribution flow restrictions can increase price levels and exacerbate volatility. Winter gas flexibility has improved in some areas in response to market forces. West: 1 Bcf of new capacity from Rocky Mountains into central California and southern Nevada (Kern River) Southeast: 1.5 Bcfd of new pipeline capacity into Florida (GulfStream and FGT) East: Increased delivery capacity since last winter (Cove Point and DistriGas LNG) Midwest: Additional gas deliverability into Wisconsin (Horizon and Guardian short-haul systems) 15 Gas value-added for generation versus space heating appears greatest in New England and
California for winter 2003/04. Revenue (loss) after gas costs (Spark spread, $/MWh) $22 $18 First quarter 2003 First quarter 2004 (estimated) $14 $10 $6 $2 Av er ag e PJ M M as s T O ER C En te rg y SP -1 5 C in er
gy C om Ed rd e Pa lo Ve P15 N M id -C -$2 Source: Burnham Securities, Inc., Spark Spread Monitor, Tables 5 and 6, November 10, 2003. 16 Survey responses reveal mixed industry reaction to Policy Statement. Commissions Policy Statement on price discovery highlighted current problems and provided standards to improve accuracy, reliability and transparency of indices Staff monitoring plan includes: Survey of industry
Individual meetings with price index publishers Meetings with associations Liquidity workshop Slight decline in number of companies reporting transactions; gas lowest Slight decline in number of publishers to whom data is reported Some companies plan to resume reporting late 2003 or early 2004 (e.g., Constellation, El Paso Merchant, PG&E, Williams Power) Other companies are waiting for clarification of the Policy Statement or see no value in reporting their transactions Presentations at Nov. 4 workshop on liquidity reported more encouraging progress 17 Modest growth is evident in new electricity futures contract on NYMEX. PJM monthly electricity futures contract Prices 35,000 $60 30,000 $50 Price ($/MWh) Number of Contracts Volume 25,000 20,000 Volume 15,000 10,000 5,000 $30 Heating season forward curve
(Nov. 11, 2003) $20 $10 Open interest 0 3 O ct -0 3 p0 Se g0 3 3 Au Ju l- 0 -0 3 Ju n M ay -0 3 $0 r-0 3 Ap
$40 Cooling season forward curve (Nov. 11, 2003) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 0 c- 0 n-0 b-0 r -0 r-0 y- 0 n-0 l- 0 g- 0 p- 0 v u a p o N De Ja Fe M A Ma Ju J Au Se Source: Nymex statistical group and www.nymex.com. Data current through October 2003. 18 Credit remains an ongoing concern related to the operations of all energy markets. Financial credit ratings and liquidity issues Successful refinancings and debt extension relieved short-term concerns (among those that did not file for bankruptcy) Long-term prospects and solvency still under pressure of low spark spreads and weak electricity capacity markets Transactional credit issues Studies like the Price Spike Study underscore the effects of credit on transaction costs (some market participants had difficulty finding creditworthy partners during February price spike) Progress made in credit clearing Nymex
Gas: 11.7 quadrillion Btus cleared Electricity: 70 million MWh cleared ICE Gas: 20.6 quadrillion Btus cleared Competitors have had more limited traction Need to monitor margin levels for virtual bids and offers in some ISOs 19 Based on this and previous assessments, these are some of the factors OMOI will be monitoring this winter: Natural gas storage Storage status Quality of storage data Spread between spot gas prices and the cost of gas taken out of storage Interaction of electric generation and cold weather Price effects Reliability effects (e.g., pipeline constraints on fuel for power generation) Transaction reporting Price and volume reporting Cooperation with FERCs Policy Statement Creditworthiness issues and implications 20
of expected lifetime wealth costs of . later-life health events - "…individual at age 65 could expect between $30,000 and $90,000 of health-related draw-down of wealth, depending on their gender and marital status"
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