Geoengineering Methods and Risks Edward P. Richards, JD,

Geoengineering Methods and Risks Edward P. Richards, JD,

Geoengineering Methods and Risks Edward P. Richards, JD, MPH Clarence W. Edwards Professor of Law LSU Law School, Climate Change Law Project [email protected] Blog - http://sites.law.lsu.edu/coast/ Geoengineering Strategies

Climate Engineering Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Alkalization of the ocean (limestone) Actually adaptation, but considered climate engineering in the literature and research Adaptation

Levees Coastal Restoration Riverine Drainage Projects Water Relocation Projects

Natural Climate Engineering Earth's Future Volume 4, Issue 11, pages 523-531, 24 NOV 2016 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000447 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000447/full#eft2157-fig-0001 Was breaking the taboo on research on climate engineering via albedo modification a moral hazard, or a moral imperative?

Earth's Future 24 FEB 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000463 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000463/full#eft2172-fig-0001 Why the Explosion of Interest? Ramp up of projected risks from warming such as sea level rise. Growing concern with tipping points

Impossibly of creating binding and enforceable international agreements Limits of the Paris agreement Growing subnational resistance in the US Election of Trump E.P.A. Chief rejects consensus view of climate change Climate Engineering Strategies

Vaughan, Naomi E., and Timothy M. Lenton. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals." Climatic change 109.3-4 (2011): 745-790. Research for assessment, not deployment, of Climate Engineering: The German Research Foundation's Priority Program SPP 1689 Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 128-134, 24 JAN 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000446

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000446/full#eft2185-fig-0001 Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 93-106, 24 JAN 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000389 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000389/full#eft2174-fig-0002 Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering

Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 49-58, 13 JAN 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000449 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000449/full#eft2165-fig-0001 What are the risks? Vaughan, Naomi E., and Timothy M. Lenton. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals." Climatic change 109.3-4 (2011): 745-790.

What are the Geopolitical Issues? Earth's Future Volume 4, Issue 11, pages 523-531, 24 NOV 2016 DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000447 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000447/full#eft2157-fig-0002 What are the Geopolitical Risks?

Unilateral action What is the appropriate forum for coordinating and disciplining geoengineering strategies with extranational effects? Winners and Losers Is China the best candidate for unilateral action? What if the monsoon fails in India? Capture by the Military Industrial Complex

There are huge contracts at issue The national security card trumps all opposition Geoengineering for Adaptation Types of Projects Protection from climate related extreme weather events

Levees Coastal Restoration Riverine Drainage Projects Water Management Dams and river reengineering Water distribution systems We will focus on geoengineering for extreme

weather events Levees and Riverine Drainage Limited risk envelope of extreme weather to justify the CBA (both money and land use costs) for construction 100/500 year events Limited adjustment for climate and other anthropogenic

risk enhancers Predictable megaproject risks Overstated benefits and understated costs Problems in large scale quality control Extreme difficulty in long term maintenance of performance specifications The Escalator/Levee Effect

Shift from high frequency, low severity flooding to low frequency, high severity flooding. Channel contraction increases height of the flood Channel confinement reduces alterative path flows Adaptation to frequent, low severity flooding Low height building elevation Water resistant construction Low population density

Adaptation to low frequency, high severity flooding High population density No adaptation, leading to catastrophic losses during events. Coastal Restoration Dune Restoration Outer Banks

Living Shoreline - Louisiana Marsh and Land Creation Why is Coastal Restoration Impossible? Coasts retreat inland during sea level rise Deep paleoclimate/geology record Current rates of sea level rise are enough to force retreat,

and projected rates exceed previous natural rates. Deltas follow sea level Retreat inland during rising sea level all are about 6k years old Go to the continental shelf during glacial maximum Coastal restoration denies the effects of climate change.

The Special Problem of Subsidence Deltas subside as part of the natural cycle Dams and levees reduce the sediment to fill the increased accommodation space Faults create hot spots of subsidence, hastening the conversion to open water Ground water pumping exacerbates subsidence

Levees on the delta exacerbate subsidence behind the delta Subsidence increases relative sea level rise to extreme levels. The Risks of Coastal Restoration The escalator effect from creating a false sense of security, especially for wetlands creation, which

does not reduce major storm surge Hastened destruction of the existing ecology systems Huge carbon footprint for dredging projects Most of the cost is fuel All are must be continually repeated Shifts money away from real protection and long term relocation.

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