Steven Winberg Program Manager Battelle :: Infrastructure &

Steven Winberg Program Manager Battelle :: Infrastructure &

Steven Winberg Program Manager Battelle :: Infrastructure & Environment Pittsburgh, PA The Future of Coal 33rd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference October 25-28, 2015 Pittsburgh, PA. The Future of Coal 1 Our Founding Mission Bring business and scientific interests together as forces for positive change Gordon Battelles last will and testament Established by steel industrialist, Gordon Battelle Nonprofit, charitable trust formed in 1925 in Columbus, Ohio Profits reinvested in science & technology, and in charitable causes 2 Serving a Broad Range of Clients Consumer & Industrial Energy & Environment Health & Analytics Laboratory Management National Security Pharmaceutical & Medical Devices STEM Education 3 US Coal Production Through 2014 2015 estimate Production down 9% from 2014 Production down 22% from 2008 peak Exports down 17% from 2014 Exports down 36% from 2012 peak 4 US Coal Production Through 2014 Coal Use 93% Electricity Generation 5% Industrial (excluding coke ovens) 2% Coke Ovens Metallurgical coal 5 My Focus Coals Future for Power Generation

You cant talk about the future of coal without talking about natural gas Paradigm Shift The majority of natural gas E&P was in the Gulf deep water until the 2007 shale boom. Shale shifted the paradigm 3-5 years to build a deepwater well vs. 6-9 months for a shale well Lower amplitude on price variability Shorter time between boom and bust cycles U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price High Energy Prices Hurricane Katrina Snow & Cold Summer 1987 $1/Mcf Ohio 9 Paradigm Shift The majority of E&P was in the Gulf deepwater until the 2007 shale boom. Shale shifted the paradigm 3-5 years to build a deepwater well 6-9 months for a shale well Lower amplitude on price variability Shorter time between boom and bust cycles 2014 Winter was the 1st time the spot price of natural gas did not climb when the thermometer dropped in the Northeast 2014-2015 negative basis between Henry Hub and Pennsylvania production Henry Hub = $2.66 Western PA production into pipeline = $1.05 Maybe this current bust cycle is the new norm?? You cant talk about the future of coal without talking about the Clean Power Plan Electricity Generation CO2 Emissions 3000

2500 Total Fuel Oil Natural Gas Coal 32% Million Tonnes 2000 1500 1000 CPP 2030 Goal 32% below 2005 baseline 1643 Million Tonnes CO2 500 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Coal-Fueled Electricity Generation under CPP CPP 2030 CO2 Emissions 1,643,000 M Tonnes M Tons of coal 2030 Coal if lost gen. is from zero-emitting sources 634,000 M Tons 2030 Coal if lost gen if from natural gas 527,000 M Tons (17% additional loss) Year M Tonnes of CO2 You cant talk about the future of coal without talking about the aging coal fleet FirstEnergy's Lake Shore power plant, built in 1911, is closing. EIA Coal Retirement Forecast Does not consider the impacts of the Clean Power Plan 2014 Coal Consumption & Capacity Factor 350 100% 41% GW/MMTons of Coal 300 86%

90% 84% 78% 80% 71% 250 70% 28% 60% 200 50% 150 100 % Capacity Factor 43% 40% 12% 29% 30% 10% 7% 50 20% 10% 2% 0 0% 1 2 3 Age of Coal Fleet (years) 4 5

6 GW Million Tons Coal Capacity Factor You cant talk about the future of coal without talking about what replaces the aging coal fleet. 17 So What Gets Built? Wind, of course, but there are limits Solar, of course, but even more limited than wind Biomass, maybe but also limited Nuclear, unlikely Fossil Energy - Natural Gas Generation wins over coal Lower capital cost Shorter construction times Less potential for cost overrun Less environmental regulatory uncertainty Less public opposition Coal Generation - Unlikely, in the next 10 years New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 Current Grid Price 0 l oa l oa C C /C d al w

e n l c io oa an nt C v e v Ad ed on c n C va d A C S N G C C G C C N w d C e c C G an N v d Ad ce n va d A /C C

S C T C T d ce N n ed va c d A an v Ad ar le c u G s al m as r e om rth Bi o e W d in W d in -O e or h ffs PV r la

So r la o S al m er Th H ct ce l e ro d y ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l l S oa oa C C C C / l d na lw ce io n t oa a n C

dv ve d n A e o c C an v Ad C C C C G /C N w d C e C nc G a N v d Ad e c an v Ad N G C S C T C T d ce N

n d a e v c Ad an v Ad r ea l uc G s al m as r m e io th r B eo W d in W d in -O e or h ffs P ar l So V r la So al m r

e Th H ct cl e e ro d y ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l oa l oa C C /C d al w e n l c io oa an nt C v e v Ad ed on c n C va d

A C S N G C C G C C N w d C e c C G an N v d Ad ce n va d A /C C S C T C T d ce N n ed va c d A an

v Ad ar le c u G s al m as r e om rth Bi o e W d in W d in -O e or h ffs PV r la So r la o S al m er Th H ct ce l e ro d y

ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l l S oa oa C C C C / l d na lw ce io n t oa a n C dv ve d n A e o c C an v Ad C C C C

G /C N w d C e C nc G a N v d Ad e c an v Ad N G C S C T C T d ce N n d a e v c Ad an v Ad r ea l uc G s al m

as r m e io th r B eo W d in W d in -O e or h ffs P ar l So V r la So al m r e Th H ct cl e e ro d y ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150

100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l oa l oa C C /C d al w e n l c io oa an nt C v e v Ad ed on c n C va d A C S N G C C G C C N w

d C e c C G an N v d Ad ce n va d A /C C S C T C T d ce N n ed va c d A an v Ad ar le c u G s al m as r e om rth Bi o e

W d in W d in -O e or h ffs PV r la So r la o S al m er Th H ct ce l e ro d y ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l

l S S C C oa oa C C C C C C C C G G / / l d N N w na lw d ce a C io e n t o c C a n C n G dv ve d N va A n e d d o c A e n C nc va a

d v A Ad l r d e al ss ric in PV rma or ea m a l r ct h r d c W m e e e s a e l u o ff N rt h Th oelc nc Bi O So o r d a e v la dr d ce G o y n n i Ad

S H W va Ad C T C T New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 0 l l S oa oa C C C C / l d na lw ce io n t oa a n C dv ve d A n e o c C an

v Ad C C C C G /C N w d C e C nc G a N v d Ad e c an v Ad N G C S C T C T d ce N n d a e v c Ad an v Ad

r ea l uc G s al m as r e om rth Bi o e W d in W d in -O e or h ffs P ar l So V r la So al m r e Th H ct cl e e ro yd ric

New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150 100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 Current Grid Price 0 l oa l oa C C /C d al w e n l c io oa an nt C v e v Ad ed on c n C va d A C S N G C

C G C C N w d C e c C G an N v d Ad ce n va d A /C C S C T C T d ce N n ed va c d A an v Ad ar le c u G s al

m as r e om rth Bi o e W d in W d in -O e or h ffs PV r la So r la o S al m er Th H ct ce l e ro d y ric New Generation Cost LCOE (2013$/MWh) 250 200 150

100 LCOE ($/MWh) 50 Current Grid Price 0 l l S oa oa C C C C / l d na lw ce io n t oa a n C dv ve d n A e o c C an v Ad C C C C G /C N w d C e C nc

G a N v d Ad e c an v Ad N G C S C T C T d ce N n d a e v c Ad an v Ad r ea l uc G s al m as r m e io th r B eo

W d in W d in -O e or h ffs P ar l So V r la So al m r e Th H ct cl e e ro d y ric What are these Next Gen Coal Technologies? Oxyfuel Combustion Advanced Supercritical Chemical Looping Supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle Pressurized Fluid Bed Comb. So Whats the Future For Coal? One Future Slow decline of coal to 500 million tons (50% reduction) in

next 15 years perhaps quicker & greater decline More mines shuttered With this shuttering comes lost reserves More bankruptcies Fewer coal companies competing for a decreasing market. OR A Better Future albeit a challenging future Coal has to take ownership of the next generation of coal technologies Coal can no longer rely on utilities/IPPs to advance coal technology They have other, less expensive options They have higher priority uses of their capital Many have mandates to reduce coal consumption Coal must partner with technology providers Coal must build the pilot plants on mining property Coal must build, own and operate the equipment that uses its product! The best way to predict the future is to create it. Peter Drucker 800.201.2011 | [email protected] | www.battelle.org

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