Job Prospects Dwindling for HS Diploma Holders

Job Prospects Dwindling for HS Diploma Holders

State of the Union for Higher Education Prepared for Fitchburg State University to Inform Strategic Planning Sept 3, 2019 2015 The Advisory Board Company Higher Ed Assailed By A Drumbeat of Critiques 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Is College a Lousy Investment, Newsweek, September 2012; EAB interviews and analysis. 2 Job Prospects Dwindling for HS Diploma Holders Need for a Postsecondary Degree Underscored in Post-Recession Economy Employment Changes by Educational Attainment, During and Post Recession requiring a high -1.8M jobs school diploma or less 8.6 Million Employment Change (Millions) 7.4 Recession Employment Change During the Recession requiring at least +187K jobs a bachelors degree Recovery 5.4 Unemployment Rates 3.4 1.3 Million 1.4 high school 5.2% for diploma holders

for bachelors 2.7% degree holders -0.6 -2.6 -5.5 Million -4.6 2008 -6.6 2009 2010 Bachelor's 2011 2012 Associate's 2013 2014 2015 2016 HS Diploma or GED Looking Ahead 65 % of all jobs will require education and training beyond high school by 2020 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2016, America's Divided Recovery: College Haves and Have-Nots 1) High school. ; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016, Unemployment rates and earnings by educational attainment; Georgetown University Center on 2015 The Advisory Board Company Education and the Workforce, 2014, Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020; EAB interviews and analysis. 3 Value of College Degree has Never Been Higher 4

Bachelors Degree Holders See ROI1 in Lifetime Earnings and Beyond Median Annual Earnings Among Full-Time Workers Ages 25 to 32 $50,000 $44,770 $41,989 $38,833 $40,000 $33,655 $30,000 $31,384 $20,000 Silents (1965) $36,498 $34,595 $32,299 $30,525 Early Boomers (1979) Late Boomers (1986) $43,663 $32,173 $45,500 $30,000 Bachelor's degree or more Two-year degree/some college $1M Nearly $1 million2 lifetime earnings $28,000 $27,883 differential between

bachelors degree and Gen Xers Millennials HS diploma holders (1995) (2013) Benefits Beyond Earnings +47 % Likelihood of having health insurance through employment 1) Return on Investment. 2) Median lifetime earnings differential $964,000. 2015 The Advisory Board Company +72 % Likelihood of having a retirement plan through employment +44 % Likelihood of reporting health to be very good or excellent +21 % Likelihood of being married Source: Pew Research Center, 2014, The Rising Cost of Not Going to College; Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2011, The College Payoff ; Lumina Foundation, 2015, Its Not Just the Money; EAB interviews and analysis. Every Non-Completion is a Tragedy Student Loan Crisis is Really a Crisis of Completion Loan Default Has Profound Financial Consequences Enrollment Drop Out Default

59% Loans enter immediate repayment for full balance Fees and collection costs added to the balance Wages and tax refunds can be garnished Damaged credit score inhibits future borrowing $8,225 Of college noncompleters drop out with debt1 1) From federal student loan programs (i.e., Stafford, Perkins loans) 2015 The Advisory Board Company Average loan amount for borrowers who dropped out 63% Of defaulted student loans are from non-completers Source: U.S. Department of Education, 2013, Federal Student Loan Debt Burden of Noncompleters; Detroit Free Press, 2015, Will you end up with student loan debt and no degree?; Huffington Post, 2012, For Profit College Students Most Likely to End up in Debt with No Diploma; CNN, 2016 For-Profit College Students Account for 35% of All Loan Defaults; EAB interviews and analysis. 5 Not Exactly News 6 College Has Been Called into Question for Decades Guess Which Quotes Are From 1976 vs. 2012 April 1976

2015 The Advisory Board Company By all estimates, the rising costs of college have been paced by diminished economic returns on the college investment. Is all this investment in college education really worth it? The answer, I fear, is that its not. As much as 27 percent of the nation's work force may now be made up of people who are "overeducated" for the jobs they hold. More than half of all recent graduates are unemployed or in jobs that do not require a degree. Source: Who Needs College, Newsweek, April 1976; Who Needs College? The Answer Might Surprise Newsweek, Huffington Post, October 2012; ; EAB interviews and analysis. Financial Sustainability in the Decade Ahead Existential Urgency Dependent on Segment Percent of presidents that strongly agree/agree business models for each type of institution will be sustainable over next ten years: Inside Higher Ed and Gallup 2018 Survey of College and University Presidents, ( n = 618) Elite private universi... 0.9 Elite private liberal arts coll... 0.8 Public flagship universi... 0.7 Community coll... 0.4

Non-flagship public four-... Other private four-... For-profit institut... 2015 The Advisory Board Company 0.3 0.1 0.1 7 8 Shifting Demographic and Economic Realities PART 2015 The Advisory Board Company 1 Not Enough Growth to Go Around for Everyone High School Graduate Growth Rate Plateaus Before Precipitous Decline Number of High School Graduates and Compound Annual Growth Rates 3,800,000.0 Growth Decline Growth Decline +1.4% growth rate -.6% growth rate +0.6% growth rate -1.4% growth rate 3,600,000.0 3,400,000.0 3,200,000.0 3,000,000.0 2,800,000.0 2,600,000.0

Change in High School Graduates from School Year 2012-2013, by Region West Midwest Northeast South 2019-2020 -11,500 -41,200 -42,000 32,200 2024-2025 24,900 -29,700 -26,200 117,900 2029-2030 -45,900 -26,200 -72,300 7,100 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: EAB analysis of WICHE data. 9 Looming Birth Dearth 10 Population of 18-Year-Olds to Contract Sharply After 2025 Modest Decrease 2017-2021 Followed by Growth Spike

2022-2025 Met with A Sharp Decline 2026-2029 2025 Population 4.51 Million 18-Year-Olds 2017 Levels 2021 Population 4.17 Million 18-Year-Olds -1% Decrease of 18-Year-Olds (2017-2021) 2015 The Advisory Board Company 2029 Population 3.86 Million 18-Year-Olds 8% -14% Growth of 18-Year-Olds (2022-2025) Decrease of 18-Year-Olds (2026-2029) Sources: Grawe, Nathan D., Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, 2017; EAB analysis. Diverging Fortunes by Region 11 Falling Birthrates From 2007 to Present Projected to Hit HEIs Across the US Projected Percent Change in the Population of 18-Year-Olds, 2017-2029 11% to 30% growth 0% to 10% growth -1% to -9% decline -10% to -19% decline -20% + decline 2015 The Advisory Board Company Sources: Grawe, Nathan D., Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, 2017; EAB analysis. Demographic Change Overview: Massachusetts

12 Change in Number of High School Graduates, 2005-2015 Vs. 2016-2031 Data Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 4% 2016-2031 2005-2015 -9% Hispanic, White, and Black Students as a Share of All High School Graduates, 2016 Vs. 2031 Data Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 62% 51% 2016/17 20% 8% White 2015 The Advisory Board Company 10% Black 2031/32 12% Hispanic Source: Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2016,; EAB interviews and analysis. Demographic Change Overview: Massachusetts 13 Forecasted Number of College-Aged and College-Going Students in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island1 (Thousands), by Year of High School Graduation 16% Decline among four-year college-going students between 2017 and 2029 Declining: Hispanic (-31%) 66.7

71.3 70.5 Black (-21%) 71.0 White (-18%) 56.3 27.6 29.3 29.0 32.3 31.1 4-year college 2017 2020 2-year college 2023 29.7 2015 The Advisory Board Company Asian American (-3%) 30.3 25.6 35.1 26.9 College-age, not college-going 2026 2029 Sources: Grawe, Nathan D., Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, 2017; EAB analysis. Getting Ready for the Student of the Future Currently. 30% Of entering firstyear students in US are first generation college students

25% Leave after their first year, a drop-out rate four times higher than peers1 89% Of low-income first generation students leave college after six years without a degree 2015 The Advisory Board Company 14 But Changes on the Horizon -10% We appear to be approaching a time when, even for middleStudents with household class students, the economic incomes >$100K benefit of a college degree (2017-2029) will begin to dim. -19% Non-Hispanic white 18-year-olds (2012-2029) 64 % 18-year-olds in a household where neither parent holds a bachelor's degree (2029) Source: Nathan D. Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018); Melissa Korn, Fewer High-School Grads Enrolled in College Last Year," Wall Street Journal, April 2018; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Ellen Ruppel Shell, College May Not Be Worth It Anymore The New York Times, May 16, 2018; EAB interviews and analysis. Debt Aversion in Action 15 Students Even More Debt Averse Than They Say A 2017 Study on Loan Aversion Compared

Stated Preferences to Behaviors Attitudes Did Not Accurately Reflect Debt-Averse Behaviors Among high school students: TX TN 7,261 people surveyed KY MA Four states represented Three Types of Loan Aversion Measured: 32% 22% say they believe that borrowing money is basically wrong say they believe its not okay to borrow for education 39% exhibited evidence of loanaverse behavior Variation Within Segments Challenges Common Assumptions About Debt 1 General attitudes toward borrowing No evidence that low-income students are more loan averse 2 Attitude toward borrowing for education 3 Loan-averse behavior measured using

hypothetical financial aid packages with and without loans Hispanic students are more loan averse than other groups, even after controlling for income and first-generation status Females less loan averse in attitudes but more loan averse in behavior Transfer students are less loan averse 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Boatman, A., Brent J. Evans, and Adela Soliz, 2017, Understanding Loan Aversion in Education: Evidence from High School Seniors, Community College Students, and Adults; EAB interviews and analysis. Prevalent Technology Makes Screen Time Ubiquitous Excessive Screen Time 16 Todays Kids Have Never Known Life Without Phones Mobile Screen Time on the Rise for Young Kids Average Time Kids 8-Years-Old and Younger Spend on Mobile Devices per Day, in Minutes Time young children spend on mobile devices has more than tripled in just 4 years Variation Plays Out Along Income Lines Average Screen Time Per Day (hrs:min), by Family Income 48 110 <$30,000 All students 15 209 >$75,000 2013 139 2017 Long-Term Effects of Screen Time Largely Unknown But Excessive Exposure Has Been Linked to

Sleep Deprivation 2015 The Advisory Board Company Greater Risk of Aggression Risk of Obesity Decreased Physical Activity Source: Hopkinson, A, Time Children Spend on Mobile devices Has Tripled in Four Years, EdSource, 2017;Common Sense Census 2017: Media Use by Kids Age Zero to Eight, Common Sense Media; Lou, D. Sedentary Behaviors and Youth: Current Trends and the Impact on Health, Active Living Research, 2014; EAB interviews and analysis. Effects of the Great Recession The Great Recession and Its Aftermath Todays Students Were Born Amid Economic Downturn Economic and Societal Hardships Resulting from the Great Recession (2007-2009) 8% Decline in median household family incomes 4M Homes were foreclosed annually 30M Americans lost their jobs, doubling historical high of longterm unemployment 1) Based on national findings from a survey of domestic violence shelters, n=672. 2015 The Advisory Board Company 18% Reduction in household net worth 6% Decline in the number of jobs 5M Americans lost

employment-based healthcare 17 That Had a Detrimental Influence on Home-Life Stability Poverty rates for youth under age 18 reached 22% in 2010, higher than that of any other age group 8.1 million children (an increase of 67%) were living with an unemployed parent in 2010, increasing their likelihood of homelessness Percentage of food-insecure households with children peaked at 21.3% in 2009 Domestic violence grew in relation to unemployment, resulting in 75% of shelters reporting an increase in women with children seeking assistance1 Source: Kalleberg, A & von Wachter, T, The U.S. Labor Market During and After the Great Recession: Continuities and Transformations, 2017; Bauer, L & Schanzenbach, D, Childrens Exposure to Food Insecurity Is Still Worse Than It Was Before the Great Recession, 2018; Schneider et al., Intimate Partner Violence in the Great Recession, 2017; Mary Kay Truth About Abuse Survey, 2011; Isaacs, J & Lovell, P, Families of the Recession: Unemployed Parents & Their Children, Brookings; Redd, Z, Child Poverty in the Aftermath of the Great Recession, Child Trends, 2015; Holahan, J, The 2007-09 Recession and Health Insurance Coverage, 2011; EAB interviews and analysis. Increased Substance Abuse Substance Abuse Rates on the Rise Alcohol Abuse Rising to Troubling Levels Results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, 2002-2013 29.6 M 50% Americans engaged in high-risk1 drinking in 2012-13 66% Increase in alcohol abuse and dependence among low income2 individuals Increase in alcohol abuse and dependence

18 While Opioid Crisis Continues to Intensify Data Based on a 2016 Governmental Account of Nationwide Drug Deaths 11.4 M >115 People misused prescription opioids between 2016-2017 People die every day in the United States from an opioid overdose Drug overdose is the leading cause of death for people under 50 Kids Suffer As a Result of Adult Behavior 25% Of American kids grow up in households where substance abuse is present 1) High-risk drinking defined as women drinking four or more drinks in a day or men drinking five or more drinks in a day, on a weekly basis. 2) Low income defined as earning less than $20,000. 2015 The Advisory Board Company Experts find that children struggle to regulate behavior because they dont know boundaries of right and wrong Source: Katz, J, New York Times, 2017; Domonoske, C, NPR, 2017; Impact of Substance Abuse on Families, National Center for Biotechnology Information; Guide for Children of Addicted Parents, American Addiction Centers; EAB interviews and analysis. Rise in Mental Health Diagnoses Affecting Individuals Younger and Younger 19 Leaving Educators Very Concerned With How to Respond Adolescents and Children Not Immune to Mental Illness % of Youth Ages 3-17 Diagnosed with ___ 6.8%

ADHD Behavioral or conduct problems Anxiety Depression 2.1% Suicide is the second leading cause of death among children age 10-24 But Most of These Kids Fail to Receive Adequate Treatment % of Youth Ages 3-17 with a Diagnosable Disorder who Go Untreated 80% Of roughly 12 million children are not provided proper treatment for mental health issues 2015 The Advisory Board Company Average Growth, 2009-10 to 2014-15 5.6% 3.5% 3.0% Demand for Services Outpaces Enrollment Growth Average percent change in institutional enrollment 29.6 % Average percent change in counseling center utilization 5 x Rate at which counseling center utilization outpaced enrollment growth Source: Snow & McFadden,

Generation at Risk: Americas Youngest Facing Mental Health Crisis, 2017; Kids at Risk, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Center for Collegiate Mental Health, 2015 Annual Report,; EAB interviews and analysis. Students Pursuing Workforce Oriented Degrees 20 Students Move to Healthcare and STEM, Away from Education & Humanities Change in Number of BA Degree Completions by Major Group, 2007-2015, All Institutions He 89,926 33,014 Architecture and enginee... 30,344 25,249 Psychology and social ... 24,746 80% of the growth has come from criminal justice and social work 23,631 Computers, statistics, and mathema... 18,031 14,568 Agriculture and natural resou... 12,294 8,940 Physical scie... 8,369 7,434 Political science declining while economics surging 6,528 -11,337 Educa... -19,388 2015 The Advisory Board Company Most fields shrinking, though

communications increasing Source: EAB analysis of IPEDS data. Repackaging Liberal Arts 21 Orienting Liberal Arts Majors Towards 21st Century Careers Pairing Liberal Arts with Professionally-Oriented Tracks Reframe or add tracks to struggling liberal arts majors oriented around todays industries Nexus program focuses on emerging fields: English Publishing and Editing Prepare students for marketing, public relations, media production, journalism Industry-specific practicum taught by professional-inresidence Students required to complete relevant internship New program-specific capstone A few new major-specific courses were added to the curriculum 95% 80% School of Arts and Growth in enrollment in Sciences graduates English in two years employed or continuing education 2015 The Advisory Board Company - Data science - Engineering

- Global business - Non-profit leadership Prepare students for internships, research projects, careers Pre-Experience Programming 3 Academic Courses Pre-selected course options tailored to track Practical Experience Related internship, research project, or summer job Curriculum to Career Course Presentation on Experience 9% Students declaring a track Source: Nexus: Curriculum to Career, Mount Holyoke College,; Graduate Results Class of 2014, Career Development Office, Susquehanna University; Course Catalog: English Publishing & Editing, Susquehanna University; EAB interviews and analysis. 22 Emerging Strategies for Sustainability PART 2015 The Advisory Board Company 2 Growth the Top Institutional Imperative for Most 23 Key Focus Across Different Campus Leaders and Segments CBOs with Strong Growth

Leaders Across Campus Affirm Growth Imperative Aspirations1 by Segment 8 7% 83% 82% 79% 83% 77% 69%71% 66% 69% 88 % Provosts agree1 that financial concerns prevalent in institutional discussions about launching new programs All Public Doctoral Public Master's/B accalaureate Private Doctoral/Master's Private Baccalaureate 95 % Online education administrators indicate plans to launch new online programs in next 3 years 1) Agreeing or strongly agreeing with survey statement. 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Inside Higher Ed, The 2016 Inside Higher Ed Survey of College and University Business Officers, July 2016; Inside Higher Ed, 2017 Survey of College and University Chief Academic Officers, January 2017; Straumsheim, C., Signs of a Ceiling in Online Ed Market, Inside Higher Ed, May 22, 2017; EAB interviews and analysis. Transfer Barriers to Transfer at Every Stage 24 Slow and Confusing Process Prevents Many Students from Transferring 5.9M 1.9M

community college students intend to transfer community college students transfer to four-years Lifecycle of a Prospective Transfer Student Search Preparation Decision Wants to transfer, unsure how Looks for four-year, unsure of best fit Wants to apply, still unsure if feasible Confusing transfer guides Transfer fairs provide insufficient detail How many credits transfer? Over-burdened two-year advisors Infrequent visits from four-year recruiters, sparse contact How much will it cost? 4M will How long will it take? potential transfers lost Intended Transfers Drop Out of Pipeline 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Community College Research Center, What We Know About

Transfer, Teachers College, Columbia University, 2015. Competing on Clarity 25 Answering Three Core Questions to Boost Transfer Yield How many credits will transfer? How much will it cost to complete? How long will it take to get a degree? The three common threads for prospective student delays in decision-making are: I need to know what credits transfer, I need to know how much it will cost, and I need to know how long it will take me to finish We need to develop a capability to provide this information to students before they apply. Scott Booth Executive Director of Marketing and Enrollment Franklin University 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: EMF Interviews. Online @ Regional Public Universities 26 Online Grad and Undergrad Enrollment Growing at Same Rate Graduate and Undergraduate Students Increasingly Interested in Online Education Percentage change in student enrollment at four-year, degree-granting institutions, 2012-2016 38.4% Unlike national trends, exclusively online enrollment is growing at both undergraduate and graduate level. 32.9% 33.8% 9.0% 2.8% 2.7% Exclusively faceto-face enrollment falls at

all levels. -7.2% Overall Exclusively Online Undergraduate 2015 The Advisory Board Company Some Online -8.1% Exclusively Face-to-Face Graduate Source: EAB analysis of IPEDS data. Myth: There is No Online Market 27 Reality: Three Distinct Student Segments Constitute Online Opportunity Goals and Motivations Selection Process Multimodal Undergraduates Professional Graduate Students Adult Degree Completers Opting for Convenience and Enrichment Investing in Career Advancement Looking for Fast, Flexible Degrees On-Time Graduation Promotion On-Time Graduation

Curricular Exploration Career Change Curricular Exploration Location Search and Shop Search and Shop Reputation Reputation in Industry Cost Cost 2015 The Advisory Board Company Convenience Multimodality Increasingly the Norm 28 More Traditional Students Are Demanding Blended Learning Opportunities Multi-Modality at the University of Central Florida Face-to-Face Students Taking Online Courses Have Increased 42% Head count by location, Fall 2016 2% 1% 1% Secondary Campus Students 23% (2,994) 2% Fall 2010 Main Campus Students

(50,272) Web Students (36,465) 37% 16% 40% 1% 1% 1% 1% Regional Campus Fall 2016 Classifying a student as main campus or extended campus or distance becomes meaningless in an environment where students take whatever courses they need in whatever location or modality best suits their requirements at the time. Thomas Cavanagh, Vice Provost for Digital Learning, University of Central Florida (1,726) 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Thomas Cavanagh, "The Postmodality Era: How Online Learning Is Becoming Learning," in Game Changers: Education and Information Technologies, edited by Diana G. Oblinger, 215-228. Washington, D.C.: EDUCAUSE, 2012.; "What is Blended Learning?", University of Central Florida. Untether from the Academic Calendar 29 Decrease Graduation Delays With Intersession and Summer Online Courses D,F,W general education course Traditional Academic Calendar Flexible Academic Calendar

Year 1 Year 1 Unable to get into first-choice major Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Opportunity to retake core course during intersession Course Prioritization: High demand prerequisites, general education courses, and introductory pre-med courses 2015 The Advisory Board Company Unable to register for major requirement Opportunity to take required courses over the summer Opportunity to take major requirement over the summer UCF Students Who Take More Courses Online Tend to Graduate Sooner 4.3 Average number of years it takes an exclusively face-toface (0% of credit hours taken online) student to graduate 3.9 Average number of years it takes a student who takes 41%-60% of their

credit hours online to graduate Source: EAB interviews and analysis. A Second Life for Existing Online Courses 30 Restructuring Intersession as a Path to Degree Completion Degree-Advancing Impact General education bottlenecks Sequenced courses Major requirements Credit Accumulation on the Rise ~650 Enrolled students +4% Students taking 15 CH (Spring 2015 vs. 2016) Course Format 100% online 3-week duration 5 days per week Faculty Incentives Receive extra pay for course overload One-time $500 bonus to work with Instructional Design 2015 The Advisory Board Company +2000 Total credit hours accumulated No decrease in Spring term credit accumulation Participants Excel Academically 81% Winter students attained an A/B grade

66% A/B grades for Fall term course equivalent Source: EAB interviews and analysis. Flexible Modality, Responsive Schedules 31 Dual Delivery Offers In-Person Engagement and Flexibility The Next Level of StudentCentric Scheduling 1 2 Beginning of Term End of Term ER Visit Course content delivered in a traditional, face-toface manner Loss of Childcare Class sessions and course materials are recorded and uploaded to Blackboard 3 Students can flex attendance at-will 4 Discussions and assignments available in both modalities Unpredictable Work Schedule In-Person 2015 The Advisory Board Company 63% Key: Online Gap closure between fulltime and part-time retention

since implementation Source: EAB interviews and analysis. A Reason for Optimism? 32 Growth in Students Age 25-34 Growth in Online-Only Students 2007-2017, NCES 2013-2017, EAB Research 15% 620K 47% 42% All institutions Total students Public 4-years Private non-profit 4-years Growth in Masters Conferrals Tracking the Market 2007-2017, NCES EAB Research 25% 160K 10-25% All institutions Total graduates Recent increases in online program growth targets More Growth on the Horizon NCES Projections Through 2026

2015 The Advisory Board Company 11 Projected% growth 22% students age 25-34 Projected growth masters degrees conferred Source: IPEDS Database, National Center of Education Statistics; EAB Analysis. The Rise of the Professional Masters Degree A Contrast To Traditional Masters Programs Traditional Masters Full-time, residential Thesis Path to PhD Designed around faculty research interests Taught exclusively by tenure stream faculty Housed within single department Financial aid available Younger, less experienced students 2015 The Advisory Board Company Professional Masters Part-time, low residence Project or work experience Path to employment Designed around employer hiring interests Taught by tenure stream faculty and adjuncts Cross-disciplinary/ multiple departments Typically self-pay Often older students with work experience Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis. 33 Signature Graduate Fields Continue to Contract

34 MBAs, JDs, and Education Masters Continue to Decline Declining Degree Conferrals 2013-2017, EAB Research MBA Education Masters Degrees JD 123,900 114,165 46,905 -8% 34,990 decline decline 2013 2017 -25% 166,921147,792 2013 2017 -11% decline 2013 2017 Volume of Test Takers Indicate Enrollments Unlikely to Rebound -6% Decline in GMAT test takers from 2014 to 2018 2015 The Advisory Board Company 6.9%

Decline in LSAT test takers from 2017 to 2018 Flat Volume of GRE test takers in the United States Source: IPEDS Database, National Center of Education Statistics; Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC); Law School Admission Council (LSAC); Educational Testing Service (ETS); EAB Analysis. Growth Concentrated in High-Cost Fields 35 Health Care and STEM Expensive to Launch and Scale Growing Masters Degree Conferrals 2013-2017, EAB Research Health Care Engineering 119,511 91,562 2013 +31 growth % 2017 41,438 2013 Computer Science and IT 46,789 53,702 +30 growth % 2017 +103 growth % 23,010

2013 2017 Growing Competition at the Masters Level 2013-2017, EAB Research +10 % Growth in number of institutions reporting health care conferrals 2015 The Advisory Board Company +6% Growth in number of institutions reporting engineering conferrals +11 % Growth in number of institutions reporting computer science and IT conferrals Source: IPEDS Database, National Center of Education Statistics; EAB Analysis. Getting Beyond Working Professionals 36 Audience Develop Targeted Programs Across a Prospects Career Lifecycle Upskilling in Place Seeking Promotion Facing Replacement Goal Value Added by Education Customer Journey My career doesnt exist

anymore. Returning to Workforce I havent worked in a long time. Preparing for a Switch Pursuing a Passion Im looking for a career with meaning. I want a better job. Require intervention to recognize educational need. Inform about job options. Explain how to refresh skills. I need new skills to keep up with job expectations. I need to build new skills for my next step. I need retraining. I need to develop updated skills. Value is typically from skills learned quickly (not credentials authority). Skills often outweigh credential, except in industries with

prescribed career ladders. New skills offer greatest benefit, but may require credential to change industry. Credential communicates readiness for todays job, and updated skills ensure performance. Keep up Advance 2015 The Advisory Board Company Articulate pathways to better jobs. Introduce meaningful alternatives. I need to prepare for a career switch. Credential signals preparation, but fields (e.g., tech) may seek primarily skill growth. Skills learned for new role matter most, if entry level degree requirements are met. Secure a new job Source: EAB interviews and analysis.

Not Just Full Masters Degrees, Though 37 Institutions Capitalizing on Changing Credential and Delivery Preferences Emerging Preference Description Millennial Demand Drivers Example 1) Master of Professional Studies. Stackable Certificates 2nd Bachelors Degrees Bootcamp s General and specialized certificates that can be combined into full masters degrees Accelerated undergraduate programs for bachelors degree holders. Students complete only major, not foundational, coursework Intensive, face-to-face, non-credit programs that teach specific skills Employers limiting tuition reimbursement to programs directly applicable to short-term job functions High number of underand unemployed recent graduates Student preference shifting towards intensive, face-to-face learning experiences

Young professionals seeking specialized credentials for long-term career enhancement Greater salary premium for STEM-focused bachelors compared to liberal arts masters For-profit start-ups targeting millennials in bootcamp marketing Core landscape design Post-baccalaureate BS in Coding bootcamp prepares and specialized Computer Science students for web sustainable landscape requires no prior technical developer careers in 12 certificates can be training; offered online in (full-time program) or 24 combined into a MPS1 in full- and part-time formats (part-time program) weeks Landscape Design Source: Surden E, Rutgers Coding Bootcamp, Graduating another Class, NJ Tech Weekly, Jul. 26, 2016; The George Washington 2015 The Advisory Board Company University, Washington, DC; Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; EAB interviews and analysis. Degree Completion Hype Doesnt Reflect Reality Not All Degree Completion Prospects are Likely to Complete The Hype 31M Size of degree completion market (some college, no degree) often cited used in vendor sales pitches, strategic plans. The Reality of Potential Completers 12.4%

31.9% Key Characteristics Most common potential completer is between 24-29 years old Men represent a slightly smaller proportion (trend younger) 4M Potential completers (multiple term enrollees with 2 years progress or more) For 17% of potential completers, seven or more years has elapsed since their last enrollment 45.6% attended only one institution and 36% attended only two institutions One-term enrollees 55.7% Multiple-term enrollees with less than 2 years progress For more information about how EAB can help institutions identify and recruit adult students, please see our Adult Learner Recruitment Service on Source: Shapiro, D., Dundar, A., Yuan, X., Harrell, A., Wild, J., Ziskin, M. (2014, July). Some College, No Degree: A National View of Students with 2015 The Advisory Board Company eab.comSome College Enrollment, but No Completion (Signature Report No. 7). Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 38 Student Success The Economic Case for Student Success 39 Protecting Your Investment in the First-Year Class Cost to Recruit a New Student Doing The Math Public Universities $1,763 x

$1,194 $974 $594 2004 2008 2013 First-Year Students % First-Year Attrition x $ Cost to Recruit = $ Recruitment Spend Lost Each Year 2018* (* estimated) 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: BMO Capital Markets Education and Training, September 2016; NACAC (National Association for College Admission Counseling) Annual State of College Admissions; EAB interviews and analysis. The Economic Case for Student Success 40 Financial Impact of a Retention Improvement Projected Net Revenue Above Baseline 1% increase in overall persistence each year for 3 years 10,000 student public institution

$12,000 net revenue per student $5.9M $6.2M $6.3M $6.4M $5.1M $3.8M $2.0M $0.7M Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 Fall 2023 Fall 2024 Fall 2025 2015 The Advisory Board Company EAB interviews and analysis The Evolution of Student Success Strategy 41 Most Growth in Sophistication Has Come in Last Decade Strategic Fin Aid Career Dev Degree Progress Next-Gen Advising Dev Ed Reform Degree Planning Early Intervention First-Year Experience Special Populations Student Engagement 1960 1970 2015 The Advisory Board Company 1980 1990 2000

2010 2020 Source: EAB interviews and analysis. A Big Opportunity in the Murky Middle 42 Number of Students Large Numbers of Mid-Range Students Leaving Sophomore Year or Later A Topographical Map of National Student Outcomes6.7 million student records Graduates 2nd Year or Later Departures 1st Year Departures The Murky Middle (GPA 2.0-3.0) 85% retention rate 56% graduation rate Graduates Graduates Sophomore+ Sophomore+ Dropouts Dropouts First-Year First-Year Dropouts Dropouts 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 First-Year GPA 2015 The Advisory Board Company Steering Choice Architecture in Our Favor Behavioral Economics Comes to Higher Ed Minor Changes in Policy and Framing Affect All Aspects of Life Framing Medium most popular coffee size, even when actual size manipulated The Default Option Retirement plan enrollment climbs after opt in changed to opt out

Convenience Consumers more likely to purchase food within easy reach, at eye level Burdening Bad Choice Motorcyclists must pass extra test and prove insurance to forgo helmet 2015 The Advisory Board Company But Too Often, Students are Nudged in the Wrong Direction ! ! ! ! Students take full load of 12 credits, assume theyre on track for timely graduation Students only register one term at a time, and many stick to minimum course requirements Students pick courses from huge catalog based on flawed criteria, delay graduation requirements Students able to withdraw from courses, drop out, or deviate from plans with easy transaction Source: EAB Interviews and Analysis 43 Backed by Science 44 A Large Body of Empirical Research Supports Course Improvement Active Learning Environments Course Redesign Gateway Course Assessment & Improvement Gateways to Completion Supports institutions in

course redesign efforts aimed at improving student learning and reducing costs Over 195 redesign projects undertaken 2015 The Advisory Board Company Active learning classroom design developed by North Carolina State University meant to scale active learning to large courses Over 250 institutions SCALE-UP sites in the US Comprehensive gateway course improvement processes involving analytics and F2F and virtual course redesign support communities 39 participating colleges and universities 45 Toward Greater Rigor and Granularity in Strategic Planning PART 2015 The Advisory Board Company 3 Why Higher Ed Culture Eats Strategy 46 Mission-, Culture-Driven Ethos Often a Double-Edged Sword Worthy Efforts to Build Consensus Frequently Prevent Strategic Thinking Everyone deserves a seat at the table Every idea is a good idea Weve got to all be on board Participation in planning seen as necessary to further

individual or departmental agendas Culture of inclusion fosters belief that every contribution has equal merit Complete consensus viewed as the only way to move ideas beyond committee meetings Prohibitively long planning process Wish list plan Bold ideas are rejected outright Few in-depth discussions Few trade-offs End goals are vague, watered down Conversations dominated by a few, loud voices Little consideration of actionability or scale Potential disruptors prevented from participating 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: EAB interviews and analysis. All Things to All People 47 Strategic Plans Too Often A Declaration of Values, Not a Roadmap Toward Differentiation Percentage of Strategic Plans That Include Indicated Strategic Goal All = 97% 94% 100% 94%

88% 78% 59% 56% 50% 0% em ad c A E ic xc e nc le l e St t en ud cc Su s es Se re cu F ce an in s St ALL

Sa nt e ud tis SLA f ti ac on m Co ACC m T ity n u ie s e cr In e as Re a se h rc ga Or z ni a on ti

a ss ce o r lP es Ohio (n=32 strategic plans; ACC=9; Ohio=11; SLA=12)* 1) *Audit participants include a selection of schools from the Atlantic Coast Conference, the University System of Ohio, and several small liberal arts conferences. 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis Assess True Strategic Imperatives Cull All the Good Ideas to Select Goals, Objectives, and Action Steps that Are Ultimately Worth Pursuing Resources Required and Ease of Implementation Leadership capacity, political will, and initial start-up and long-term maintenance costs in staff time (salary), operating expenses, space and technology needs Contribution to Mission and/or Revenue Generation Potential Impact on constituents' ability to teach, learn, research, outreach, and succeed or magnitude and likelihood of increased financial resources in next 10 years Alignment with Strategic Goals and Market Differentiators Will help the institution broaden or deepen its offerings and its value proposition to stakeholders relative to market/society 2015 The Advisory Board Company 48 Check the Hype at the Boardroom Door Consider Losses Quantify Opportunity Costs People tend to make fewer frivolous purchases when they use cash instead of credit. This is due to the fact that the opportunity cost is made concrete (i.e., you see money leaving your hand) 49

Take Action: Ask This, Not That What would we need to give up in order for this to succeed? What are universities of our size in our region doing with this innovation? Consider Obstacles Write a Eulogy One of the most effective ways to reign in an overly optimistic outlook about an innovation is to flip the script and consider all of the ways it wont work 2015 The Advisory Board Company Take Action: Pre-Mortem Primer What problem did we hope to solve? Was our understanding of that problem real or hype? What cultural aspects did we fail to consider before making the call? How did the competitive landscape shift in a way that made this purchase irrelevant? In what ways did this decision run at odds with students actual needs? Source: EAB interviews and analysis. Be Ambitious, but Please Be Specific 50 Translate World Peace Action Steps Into Programmatic, Policy, and Practice-Level Recommendations, with Costs and Key Performance Indicators That Can Be Tracked Over Time Common Challenges with Strategic Plan Objectives Nobody can oppose this because nobody knows what it means or would entail Realign all procedures and practices to provide better service to our mission without adding costs Defers the bulk of the work until later Create a taskforce to design and implement a sustainable plan to invest in high-quality academic programs Aspirational goal with no substantive recommendation guarantees it will never be pursued Identify and combat every systemic barrier to gender and ethnic inequality

So cross-disciplinary or multi-functional that its difficult to know where to start Ensure that the university employs best practices to promote health, wellness, and work-life balance for faculty, staff, and graduate assistants Proposes a fools errand research task instead of a plausible pilot program Undertake thorough study of the learning environments that enable intellectual risk-taking 2015 The Advisory Board Company 51 High-level goal Action steps Tactics FIU will improve the first-tosecond-year retention rate among its undergraduate students from 76 percent to 90 percent. Require all first-year students to purchase a personal computer/ laptop to ensure they have the appropriate tools for academic success: percent to 90 percent. Provide financial aid to those who qualify. Provide grant opportunities for those who do not qualify for aid. Explore bulk purchases at the university level to maximize supplier discounts. Educate faculty in the use of technology to engage students with the concepts of the discipline. 2015 The Advisory Board Company An Arm to Save a Leg 52 Leaders Acknowledge Necessity of Reallocation

Chief Business Officers New spending at my institution will come from reallocated dollars, not an increase in revenue. Provosts 57 % Agree or Strongly Agree Most new funds for academic programs will come from reallocation rather than new revenue. 66 % Agree or Strongly Agree Were not seeing the same student growth that we used to, and our governor is saying that were not going to get the tuition bump we were expecting. If were going to do anything new, then its got to come out of what we already have. And folks around here dont want to hear that. Chief Business Officer Regional Public University 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Business Affairs Forum interviews and analysis. The Buck Stops Here, at Elon 53 Hardwire Accountability for Initiative Execution with Regular Monitoring, Clear Assignments, and Follow-Up Elon Universitys Strategic Goal Owner Assignments Assign One Person to Manage Each Goal Goal Prepare Students for Global Society Remain Best-Value University Owner Provost

CBO Initiative Study abroad as 100% accessible Partners with International Director Initiative Partners with Reconfigure meritbased aid VP EM 2015 The Advisory Board Company Our culture is one of performance and transparency and so, you dont ever see a strategic goal owner showing up at retreat and saying not much happened [with my initiative] this last year. Gerald Whittington SVP, Business, Finance and Technology Elon University Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis Executive Oversight 54 Making Goal Success Part of Annual Review Ensures Strategy Stays Top of Mind Presidential Reviews Cabinet Retreats Assessing Progress: President leads end-of-year evaluation with senior leadership to discuss annual performance with a specific focus on the development of strategic initiatives Presenting to Peers: Strategic goal owners will present twice a year to senior leadership about progress

and expectations for initiative advancement in the coming year Art and Science: Evaluations are based on progress against quantitative metrics (i.e. benchmarks and budget management) and a qualitative review of key accomplishments and challenges Part of the Culture: Additionally, strategic initiatives are routinely discussed in weekly senior staff meetings 1) Two Forums for Strategic Goal Owner Evaluation 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis Elon Strategic Plan Progress Scorecard Strategic Goals Owners Responsible for Reporting Progress to Community Goal Status Updates Establish Advisory Council on Diversity Council and five sub-committees formed to address issues in faculty/staff recruiting and retention, diversity, campus climate, student recruitment and retention, and assessment. Double Need-Based Financial Aid First $8 million dollars set aside in endowment, in combination with annual budget dollars, to award significant scholarships in 2011-2012. Provide 100 Percent Study Abroad Access Completed focus groups with students graduating in 2011 who have not studied

abroad. Its come a long way: ss.xhtml 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis 55 Vision Without Execution Is Hallucination Resource Allocation and Incentive Alignment Processes Will Ultimately Determine Success or Failure Vision President Strategic Priorities Senior Administrators University Budget Models Academic Budgets Administrative Budgets Deans Unit Managers Department-Level Resource Allocation Unit-Level Incentives and Policies Chairs and Faculty Administrative Staff 2015 The Advisory Board Company Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis 56 Creating Departmental Accountability 57 Mission-Adjusted Performance Bonuses Push Units to Improve Strategic Accountability Matrix Student Success Metric

Department Student success metrics include both outcomes and unit programs / investments Example: Student Credit Hours lost to DFW Weight Expected Actual Score Biology 2.0 381 518 0.74 Anthropology 1.0 201 173 1.16 Metric weight adjusted according to unit characteristics (Philosophy judged less on internship placements) Negotiated by chair, dean, and provost to avoid unjustified alterations to formula 2015 The Advisory Board Company Ratio of actual to expected performance determines share of annual bonus funds ($400,000 pool) Department performance evaluated across 18 strategic priorities, including: High-Impact Practices

Student Progression 1. Internships 1. Credit hours lost to DFW 2. Intercultural immersion 2. Midterm grade reports 3. Freshmen degree plans 3. 30 credits first year 4. Advisee satisfaction 4. 60 credits first two years Source: EAB interviews and analysis.

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