Independent Load Forecast - Purdue University

Independent Load Forecast - Purdue University

ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Independent Load Forecast MISO Planning Advisory Committee October 19, 2016 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Draft Results While these results have been shared with stakeholders, they are subject to revision based on stakeholder comments Stakeholder comments were due October 17 2 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Approach for 2016 Changes in approach from Year 1 to Year 2 were continued in Year 3 Energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation (EE/DR/DG) Model multiple weather stations in the state econometric models Confidence intervals that capture uncertainty around the macroeconomic variables Conversion of the energy forecasts to peak forecasts further adjusted from 2015

3 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State EE/DR/DG Adjustments In the 1st year, adjustments were made at the state level based on state mandates, supplemented with discussions with individual state experts Last year and this year, net forecasts are

determined using adjustments at the LRZ level the economic potential from the AEG study was input to EGEAS; the amount selected by EGEAS is used here 4 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Energy to Peak Conversion

In 2015 we used an after-the fact adjustment to correct for bias in the model results The models provided mean load for a given temperature, but peaks occur at the tails of the distribution It was suggested that we use binary variables instead We have implemented this; some binary variables have weak statistical significance but the results of this model formulation were not directionally biased 5 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility

Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Other Analyses Weather normalization We used the models developed for the ILF to estimate the effect of weather on historical energy and peak demands at the LRZ and MISO levels Forecast comparison We provided comparison charts of the ILF and Module E forecasts Results of these analyses are on the MISO 6 ILF webpage

ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Embedded DSM Per stakeholder request, we are attempting to estimate the impact of DSM on the historical data used to construct our models and the potential for double counting with the EE/DR/DG adjustments in the forecast

7 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State LRZ-level Results: 2017-26 CAGR LRZ 1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gross Energy 1.68

1.49 1.66 0.64 1.25 1.32 1.07 1.07 0.94 1.63 Net

Energy 1.59 1.49 1.32 0.45 1.10 1.25 0.87 1.06 0.90

1.63 Net Peak 1.41 1.36 1.17 0.44 1.12 1.20 0.81 0.97

0.84 1.63 Notes CAGR compound annual growth rate (%) Gross prior to adjustments for energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation Net after adjustments for energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation 8 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group

Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State LRZ-level Results Graphical comparison of LRZ-level forecasts are included in the Appendix to this slide deck 9 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG)

State MISO-level Results: CAGR Year 1 (2015-2024) Year 2 (2016-2025) Year 3 (2017-2026) Gross Energy 1.42 1.33 1.25 Net Energy 0.87

1.13 1.15 Gross Summer Peak 1.42 1.30 1.24 Net Summer Peak 0.86 0.96 1.06

Gross Winter Peak 1.41 1.32 1.25 Net Winter Peak 0.86 0.91 1.02 Notes CAGR compound annual growth rate (%) Gross prior to adjustments for energy efficiency, demand response, and

distributed generation Net after adjustments for energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation 10 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 11 ENERGY CENTER

CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State DR Assumption All available DR was included in the adjustment, which reduces demand throughout the forecast period This will not always be the case in reality because sometimes it will not be needed Thus, the net peak forecast will be lower than actual if all DR is not called upon This is a common assumption when

forecasting for resource needs 12 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 13 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 14 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

Summary Gross forecast is slightly lower (5-10 GWh, 400-1100 MW) than the Year 2 forecast The EE/DR/DG adjustment is somewhat smaller this year Resulting net forecast is nearly identical to the Year 2 forecast 15 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG)

State 90/10 Net Forecasts: CAGR 2017-2026 BASE HIGH LOW Energy 1.15 1.58 0.65 Summer Peak

1.06 1.51 0.52 Winter Peak 1.02 1.48 0.49 16 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility

Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Next Steps Report due November 1 Continued work on embedded DSM 17 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG)

(SUFG) State Contact Information State Utility Forecasting Group 765-494-4223 http://www.purdue.edu/discoverypark/energy/SUFG/ Doug Gotham 765-494-0851 [email protected] 18 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG)

(SUFG) State Appendix 19 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Notes The estimated hourly historical loads for

LRZs 8 and 9 that were used in the 2014 forecast were erroneous. This was corrected for the 2015 and 2016 forecasts. LRZ 10 is included in LRZ 9 in the 2014 forecast and is separate in the 2015 and 2016 forecasts. 20 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

Notes LRZ peak demands are coincident at the LRZ level and non-coincident at the MISO-system level. Gross and net forecasts are presented separately for peak demand for the sake of clarity. 21 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

Annual Energy 22 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 23 ENERGY CENTER CENTER

ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 24 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG)

State 25 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 26 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 27 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

28 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 29 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 30 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

31 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 32 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility

Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State Peak Demand 33 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

34 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 35 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 36 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State

37 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 38 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility

Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 39 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 40

ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 41 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting

Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 42 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 43

ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 44 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group

Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 45 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 46 ENERGY CENTER

CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 47 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG)

(SUFG) State 48 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 49 ENERGY CENTER CENTER

ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 50 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG)

State 51 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 52 ENERGY CENTER CENTER ENERGY

State Utility Utility Forecasting Forecasting Group Group (SUFG) (SUFG) State 53

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