FAILURE OF VINTAGE PIPELINES A vintage pipeline is one put into service before ca. 1970 E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 1 Edward E. Timm, PhD, PE
BS, MS, PhD in Chemical Engineering from University of Michigan Licensed Professional Engineer, Michigan Retired as Senior Scientist, The Dow Chemical Company after 27 years 26 US Patents Expertise in all areas of chemical engineering with an emphasis on innovation, design, troubleshooting and new business analysis Hands on experience with most petrochemical and refinery processes Last years of Dow career devoted to Environmental Operations and cleanup technology E E Timm PhD, PE
4/26/16 Boyne City Council 2 The Universal Law of Mechanical Failure The Universal Law of Mechanical Failure Applied to Pipelines Early on, bad welds and other construction defects cause failures Once proven, pipelines can operate with an acceptable failure probability As pipelines age, probability of failure is determined by maintenance Pipelines are scrapped when maintenance costs and risks become excessive E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 3 60% of operational oil and refined product pipelines are vintage pipelines
The main cause of leakage from vintage pipelines is external corrosion The main cause of rupture of vintage pipelines is stress corrosion cracking External Constant inspection repair is required to keep these lines FitLeakage for Service Corrosionand is the Main Cause of Vintage Pipeline Fitness for Service is determined by the pipeline owner E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council
4 Enbridge Line 6b Rupture Fit for Service Constructed in 1969 Rupture July 25, 2010 Service Life to Major Rupture: 41 Years 1,100,000 Gallons Spilled Claimed Response Time: 11 minutes Actual Response Time: 17 Hours PHMSA Finding A 2005 Enbridge engineering assessment and the company's criteria for excavation and repair showed that six crack-like defects ranging in length from 9.3 to 51.6 inches were left in the pipeline, unrepaired, until the July 2010 rupture. E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16
Boyne City Council 5 Line 5 Route along the North Shore of Lake Michigan In some places Line 5 runs within 250 yards of the Lake and it has numerous water crossings Line 5 is really two very different pipelines The two Line 5 Straits crossings are totally unique and the first of their kind, an engineering masterpiece with one major design error The other 641 miles of Line 5 are of typical, run of the mill 50s vintage cross country pipeline construction consisting of twelve highly modified sections. This pipe is corrosion prone, thin wall seamed pipe that is suspect E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 6
Line 5 Indian River Crossing E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 7 Eagles Nest Road Dig, North Indian River Exit, I-75 E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 8 Cheeseman Road Dig, 5 Miles West of St Ignace
Kitchens Creek E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 9 Line 5 Lake Michigan Approach, 2 mi East of Brevort But Mr. Olson says he has no concerns about the portion of Line 5 from Rapid River to St. Ignace, adding that Line 5 runs north of US- 2 at a greater distance from the lake than Dr. Timm specified, although he did not say how far away Line 5 is from the lake. Mr. Olson said that a spill would have to flow over land and over the highway to reach Lake Michigan. St Ignace News, Paul Gingras Reporter E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16
Boyne City Council 10 Factors Determining the Service Life of a Vintage Pipeline Maintaining Fitness for Service Quality of materials and original design/construction Cathodic protection system (Federally mandated) Integrity of the corrosion preventative coating as it ages Ability of the In Line Inspection (ILI) tools to find all developing defects Ability of the pipeline operator to correctly analyze the ILI data Willingness of the pipeline operator to conduct ILI verification digs and repair or replace unsafe pipe Willingness of the pipeline operator to abandon an unfit pipeline E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council
11 All Vintage Pipelines are Significantly Corroded and Cracked Can In Line Inspection guarantee a pipeline is Fit for Service A negative opinion cannot be proven In Line Inspection always finds numerous flaws or features All detected flaws are analyzed to determine severity and growth rate Subsequent inspections follow these flaws and update growth projections Numerous regulations and codes govern this Integrity Management process How these regulations are applied is up to the pipeline operator Recent very damaging pipeline ruptures call this process into question Are existing codes and regulations adequate to insure the safety of pipelines operating beyond their design life? E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 12
Plains All American Line 901 Rupture Constructed in the Late 1980s Rupture May 19, 2015 Service Life to Major Rupture: 28 Years 142,800 Gallons Spilled 35 Minute Response Time PHMSA Finding The May 6, 2015 ILI survey data indicated corrosion at the failure site with an area of 5.38 inches by 5.45 inches, and a maximum depth of 47%. The DNV-GL metallurgical analysis physically measured corrosion at the failure site to have a maximum depth of 86% E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16
Boyne City Council 13 Colonial Pipeline Rupture Constructed in 1963 Rupture June 26 1996 Service Life to Major Rupture: 33 Years 957,600 Gallons Spilled Operator Error and Corrosion PHMSA Finding A 36-INCH-DIAMETER COLONIAL PIPELINE COMPANY PIPELINE RUPTURED WHERE A CORRODED SECTION OF THE PIPELINE CROSSED THE REEDY RIVER. THE NTSB RECOMMENDS THAT THE COLONIAL PIPELINE COMPANY REVIEW THEIR DRUG & ALCOHOL TESTING PROGRAM E E Timm PhD, PE
4/26/16 Boyne City Council 14 12 Conclusions from PHMSA Incident Reports 1. All steel pipelines corrode with time 2. In Line Inspection (smart pig) technology doesnt always work as advertised 3. In Line Inspection data can be misinterpreted 4. Pipeline company engineering departments can fail to recognize critical flaws 5. Pipeline repair/replace decisions are sometimes made without urgency 6. Automated leak detection and shutoff systems dont always work as planned 7. Leaks and ruptures are usually found by travelers or property owners 8. Remote pipeline control rooms sometimes lack operating discipline 9. Pipeline control operators educational and training requirements vary 10. Oil spill cleanup efforts rarely recover more than about 30% of the spilled oil 11. Some crude types are very hard to recover (DILBIT) 12. Gambling without knowing the odds is dumb! E E Timm PhD, PE
4/26/16 Boyne City Council 15 Pitting Corrosion is What Usually Makes Steel Structures Unfit for Service E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 16 The ONLY Known Data About Corrosion of Enbridge Line 5 E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16
Boyne City Council 17 Enbridge Corrosion Rate Data Analysis Lower Value Internal Corrosion Rate, (mm/yr) 0.018 External Corrosion Rate, (mm/yr) 0.038 Upper Value 0.046 Average 0.032 0.068
0.053 Average Internal Corrosion Rate, (in/yr) 0.0013 Average External Corrosion Rate, (in/yr) 0.0021 Years in Service 62 Total Internal Corrosion over Service Life, (in) 0.078 Total External Corrosion over Service Life, (in) 0.129
Wall Thickness Loss Due to Internal and External Corrosion Pipe Size 30" x 9/32 30" x 5/16 30" x 11/32 30" x3/8 30" x 1/2 30" x 11/16 20" x 7/8* E E Timm PhD, PE Wall Thickness 0.281 0.312 0.344 0.375 0.500 0.687 0.813
4/26/16 Average External Thickness Loss 46% 41% 38% 34% 26% 19% 16% Average Internal Thickness Loss 28% 25% 23%
21% 16% 11% 10% Boyne City Council 18 Statement by Blake Olson in Cheboygan Tribune Guest Editorial 3/5/16 But the real issue I want to address for Cheboygan Daily Tribune readers is Timms statement that Line 5 has many holes. That is completely false. We are mandated by federal law to follow strict guidelines for the operation of our pipelines. Simply put, we wouldnt be in business operating pipelines with holes in them. E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 19 Line 5 Exposed for Unknown Repairs Ca. 2012
North Side of Learning Road East of Eagles Nest Road Probable Location of Abandoned Eagles Nest Pumping Station 30 OD by 11/32 Wall X-52 Steel Pipe Pipe at South End of Trench Blasted Clean Exposing Pipe Classic Pitting Corrosion Worst on Bottom Half Dark Clumped Soil under Pipe in a Sandy Area E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 20 Economic Importance of Enbridge Energy Partners Line 5 to Michigan Line 5 supplies about 85% of the UPs propane Enbridge has a monopoly position in propane for the UP
Northern lower supply is by truck, rail and barge @ $1.80/gal retail UP supply is pipeline direct @ $1.??/gal retail Spot propane at Mt. Belvieu, LA is $.35/gal Without Enbridge and its monopoly, local wholesalers would thrive Line 5 is the route to market for Michigans crude oil production About 16,000 bbl/d or MI crude is shipped by Line 5 Alternate is 22 rail cars per day as is common practice Line 5 supplies light crude to Michigan and Ohio refineries Nobody builds a refinery with a single source of feedstock Alternate studies show about 85% of Line 5 oil is exported to CA Enbridge supplies CA subsidized, dirty oil at a slightly lower price Enbridge contributes about $20 million annually to Michigans economy through jobs and taxes...and grosses about $700 million annually from line 5 Very small change compared to economic and environmental destruction E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 21
Current Status of the Governors Pipeline Board(s) After two years of effort the Governors Pipeline Task Force failed to reach any conclusions primarily because of lack of cooperation by Enbridge. Enbridge claimed much of the requested data was either business confidential or critical energy infrastructure confidential. Two new Boards were set up by the Governor to study risk and alternatives On March 11th Ag Schuette sent Enbridge a Drop Dead letter demanding data on the following subjects within 30 days: It is rumored that Enbridge did turn over a hard drive to the AG in response The risk assessment board is only looking at the Straits crossings even though the Governor empowered them to look at all pipelines in MI. Several board members have tried to change this but the Chair shut them all down on cost and timeline considerations. E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 22
Letter from Dr. Ed Timm to Governor Snyder and A.G. Schuette dated 2/12/16 Please let common sense and your duties as Governor prevail and order your Pipeline Safety Advisory Board to take a holistic and fully transparent look at Line 5 everywhere it touches our State of Michigan E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16 Boyne City Council 23 Thank You for Your Time and Patience! E E Timm PhD, PE 4/26/16
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