!Auctions " [email protected] http://rafaeli.net !Auctions ' Prof. Sheizaf Rafaeli ? :
, , ? ? : , . : , , ,. Valuation, Reserve price , , , , . : ?
Riddle: How does one equitably divide a cake among several children ?And the joke ? Visited the local supermarket () Found a can of beans ... The cashier passed it through the reader
? ?When are Auctions used Auctions are useful when selling a commodity of undetermined quality; the goods do not have a fixed or determined market value, in other words, when a seller is unsure of the price he can get. Choosing to sell an item by auctioning it off is more flexible than setting a fixed price; less time-consuming and expensive than negotiating a price. Auctions can be used
for single items such as a work of art; and for multiple units of a homogeneous item such as gold or Treasury securities. ( ) " Auctions Everything is )becoming?( negotiable.
Auctio = increase, )( )but not all auctions are about increasing prices!( Auctions are useful for price discovery Auctions are useful to move merchandise quickly Is everything auctionable?
? Projected Growth in Revenues from C2C Auctions and B2C Dynamic Pricing SOURCE: Based on data from eMarketer, Inc., 2005; Forrester Research, 2005; authors estimates. Dynamic Pricing http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-amazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la -headlines-business
Amazon mystery: pricing of books A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at the Internet retailer. By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer January 2, 2007 Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But you don't want to carry the books around. So you ask the clerk to hold the tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them. When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's raised the prices. "I knew you were hot to buy them," the clerk says, "so I figured I could make a few extra bucks." That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to me.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-amazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la-headlines-business Amazon mystery: pricing of books A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at the Internet retailer. By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer January 2, 2007 Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But you don't want to carry the books around. So you ask the clerk to hold the tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them. When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's raised the prices. "I knew you were hot to buy them," the clerk says, "so I figured I could make a few extra bucks." That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to me. On Nov. 6, seeking to boost my dubious culinary skills, I decided to buy "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook." I went to Amazon and placed the book in my electronic shopping cart but got distracted and never finished the transaction. The next day, I signed on to Amazon again. A pop-up message informed me that the price had increased from $11.02 to $11.53. This seemed odd. In physical stores, prices of books are usually fixed, immune to fluctuation by season or whim. Indeed, they're one of the few consumer items that come with a printed price from the manufacturer.
Although the electronic world provides much greater latitude in pricing, as a longtime Amazon watcher I had never seen such an abrupt and unexplained price change. The cookbook, published two years ago by a regional press named Sasquatch Books, is decidedly obscure. Amazon's bestseller list gave it a ranking in the 18,000 neighborhood. I checked with friends, who accessed their own Amazon accounts. They determined that the price was now $11.53 for them too. Was it conceivable that Amazon, seeing the only prospective customer in sight reaching for his wallet, decided to raise the price just a bit enough to help its bottom line but not enough to scare him off? I decided on a test. I added a bunch of books, most of them newly published, most of them obscure, to my shopping baskets with both Amazon and its British affiliate, Amazon.co.uk. On Dec. 15, I checked my shopping baskets. Nine of the U.S. books had increased in price; three had decreased. At the British branch, nine had increased and none had decreased. The increases were modest often about 5%, sometimes less. But, as with "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook," they were perplexing. Why would the journals of novelist John Fowles, published two months ago to widespread apathy, increase by $1.05? An Amazon spokesman said the company wasn't trying to make a few extra bucks off me during the holidays, but that it otherwise wouldn't talk about its pricing strategies. "Prices change," spokesman Sean Sundwall said. "Prices go up, prices go down." Sucharita Mulpuru, an e-commerce analyst at Forrester Research Inc., wondered whether Amazon was going down the path of dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing involves selling identical material for different amounts based on the customer's willingness to pay. In the physical world it's a common feature. Want to fly to
Paris tomorrow? It's going to cost lots more than if you can wait a few weeks. But there's also the risk of alienating customers. In 1999, Coca-Cola Co. was reported to be testing a vending machine that would charge more for its soft drinks in hot weather than in mild. "It's fair that it should be more expensive," then-Chairman Douglas Ivester said. What seemed fair to him seemed like price gouging to others. Coke promptly denied it was considering such a plan. In 2000, Amazon was found to be charging people different prices for the same DVD. Amazon said it was doing this randomly, but there was another outcry and the company apologized. Robert M. Weiss, a Chicago lawyer who has co-written an academic study of dynamic pricing, said that letting prices fluctuate almost as if books were stocks had obvious advantages for Amazon's inventory control and profit margins. But its customers might feel manipulated. "It might seem fairer if the consumer also had the ability to negotiate," Weiss said. A week before Christmas, when I signed on to Amazon again, I was informed of another round of price changes for the books in my basket. The price of "The Jack Vance Treasury," a book that won't be available until late January, was lowered by 38 cents. But if I was going to stuff a stocking with the "Complete Poetry of Cesar Vallejo," it was going to cost me $2.50 more. Amazon spokesman Sundwall noted that the company disclosed the price changes. "We're not trying to hide anything," he said. But this notice comes via a temporary message at the top of the shopping basket. Click your mouse once, and it disappears for good. The price change for "Gonzo," a deluxe memorial to iconoclastic rebel Hunter S. Thompson issued by L.A.'s Ammo Books, was too big for anyone to miss. On Dec. 26, Amazon raised it from $225 to $300. Steve Crist, the publisher, said he didn't know exactly what the bookseller was doing, but made it clear that none of the $75 increase was due to him. "As Amazon's stock of 'Gonzo' dwindles, I imagine it sees an opportunity to achieve a higher profit on its remaining copies," Crist said.
* [email protected] Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times | Auctions ?? definitions A competition-based method of allocating scarce goods.
An auction offers the advantage of simplicity in determining marketbased prices. It is efficient in the sense that it usually ensures that resources accrue to those who value them most highly; sellers receive the collective assessment of the value. Often, the auctioneer is not owner but agent. Rules set by seller, price set by bidder. Most efficient, purest of markets . Are auctions the most fair
mechanism? , ? Auctions very popular in B2B " " Lets play the auction a dollar game
20 ? ?Wanna buy a dollar (shekel) for a nickel . Anyone can play. Highest bidder gets it. Both highest and second highest bidder pay. Payment to occur online, in view of class. . All bids are public, audible and not sealed, in view of class. ,
No union, monopoly or rings allowed. , !TIME IS MONEY , , . , " ". . . Time is Money
Auction Terminology Anonymity - Open )Cry( or Valuation Sealed Bid Discriminative? Confidentiality - are participant)s( and winner)s( - does identities revealed everyone pay the same price, what they bid? Secrecy - is inventory amountordisclosed Restrictions Timing - pre-specified closing time, interval, price Increments determined, etc.
Reserve price Internet Auctions Kumar and Feldman IBM Research : http://www.ibm.com/iac/papers/auction_fp.pdf Auction Terminology Valuation Anonymity ? ? Discriminative Confidentiality ? Secrecy Restrictions
Timing Increments Reserve price ) ( Valuations Reasons for bidding in the auction: Wish to acquire goods for personal consumption )wine or art(;
Wish to acquire items for resale or commercial use. Private valuation Goods are acquired goods for personal consumption; The bidder makes his own private valuation of the item for sale. All bidders have private valuations and tend to keep that information private. There would be little point in an auction if the seller knew already how much the highest valuation of an object will be. ) ( Valuations Common valuation Goods are acquired goods for resale or commercial use; An individual bid is predicated not only upon a private valuation
reached independently, but also upon an estimate of future valuations of later buyers. Each bidder of this type tries )using the same measurements( to guess the ultimate price of the item. The item is really worth the same to all, but the exact amount is unknown Example Purchasing land for its mineral rights Each bidder has different information and a different valuation, but each must guess what price the land might ultimately bring. () Taxonomy of Auctions William Vickrey [Vickrey] established the basic taxonomy of
auctions based upon the order in which prices are quoted and the manner in which bids are tendered. He established four major )one sided( auction types: , , . . English: Ascending-price, open-cry; Dutch: descending-price, open-cry, First-price, sealed bid, Vickrey or second-price, sealed bid. . , . , ,
() Taxonomy of Auctions Classification English Dutch Seller announces reserve price or some low opening bid. Bidding increases progressively until demand falls. Winning bidder pays highest valuation. Bidder may re-assess evaluation during auction. Seller announces very high opening bid. Bid is lowered progressively until demand rises to match supply.
() Taxonomy of Auctions Classification )cot..( , First-price, sealed bid or discriminatory Vickrey Bids submitted in written form with no knowledge of bids of others. Winner pays the exact amount he bid. Bids submitted in written form with no knowledge of the bids of others.
Winner pays the second-highest amount bid. English Auction Private vs. Common valuation Audible bids, open outcry, ascending price reserve price, knocked down
Roles of anonymity and experience , English Auction, Winners Curse Naming problems )in financial community: English is sealed, Dutch is something else( Winners Curse: The winner actually bids the furthest from the average bid, which is the best estimate of the items actual worth )reasonable
information(. Do you really want to hire the employee passed over by all others? John Glenns story. Reserve Price A reserve price is the minimum price that would enable the sale to occur. When a reserve price is not met, the item is not sold. Sometimes the auctioneer will maintain secrecy about the reserve price, and he must start the bidding without revealing the lowest acceptable price.
One possible explanation for the secrecy is to thwart rings. A ring is subsets of bidders who have banded together and agree not to outbid each other, thus effectively lowering the winning bid. Auction Strategies ? ,
, English Strategy
In a private-value English auction, a player's best strategy is to bid a small amount more than the previous high bid until he reaches his valuation and then stop. This is optimal because he always wants to buy an object if the price is less than its value to him, but he wants to pay the lowest possible price. Bidding always ends when the price reaches the valuation of the player with the second-highest valuation. English Strategy )cot..( An advantage to English auctions is that a bidder gains information. He can observe and see not only that other players drop out, but also the price at which the competition abandons the bidding. That tells a bidder a great deal about the valuations of others and allows a bidder
to revise his valuation. A player's strategy is his series of bids as a function of his value; his prior estimate of the other players' valuations; the past bids of other players. His bid can be updated as information changes. Disadvantages of English Auction The key to any successful auction )from a seller's point of
view( is the effect of competition among the potential buyers. In an English auction, the underbidder usually forces the bid up by one small step at a time. Often a successful bidder acquires an object for considerably less than his maximum valuation simply because he need only increase each bid by a small increment. the seller does not necessarily receive maximum value. Other auction types may be superior to the English auction for this reason )at least from the seller's perspective(. Dutch Auctions Descending price, Later winners pay less Flowers,fish, credit, and antiques , , ,
Seller could )?( receive top price. Think about auction frenzy ? Try the psychology Take the Dutch descending auction flower market simulation challenge, at: http://auctions.rafaeli.net Auction Strategies Dutch Strategy
At some point in advance, the bidder must decide the maximum amount he will bid )the same problem as that facing a bidder in a sealed-bid auction( . The decision is based upon his own valuation of the object; his prior beliefs about the valuations of other bidders. This auction type is strategically equivalent to first-price sealed auction because no relevant information is disclosed in the course of the auction, only at the end when it is too late. () ?
A bidding period followed by a resolution phase Discriminatory when more than one item sold, at varying prices. First Price- Sealed Bid Sealed )not open-outcry like the English or Dutch
varieties( and thus hidden from other bidders. A winning bidder pays exactly the amount he bid. Usually, )but not always( each participant is allowed one bid which means that bid preparation is especially important. a sealed-bid format has two distinct periods a bidding period in which participants submit their bids; a resolution phase in which the bids are opened and the winner is determined )sometimes the winner is not announced(. Multiple Items in a First-Price, Sealed Bid Auction
When multiple units are being auctioned, the auction is called "discriminatory" because not all winning bidders pay the same amount. In a first-price auction )one unit up for sale( each bidder submits one bid in ignorance of all other bids. The highest bidder wins and pays the amount he bid. In a "discriminatory auction, sealed bids are sorted from high to low, and items are awarded at highest bid price until the supply is exhausted. Winning bidders can (and usually do) pay different prices. Bidding Strategy
From a bidder's point of view, a high bid raises the probability of winning but lowers the profit if the bidder is victorious. A good strategy is to shade a bid downward closer to market consensus, a strategy that also helps to avoid winner's curse. First Price, Sealed Bid Strategy It is difficult to specify a single strategy because a profitmaximizing bid depends upon the actions of others. The tradeoff is between bidding high and winning more often, and bidding low and benefiting more if the bid wins )bigger profit margin(.
Most bidders attempt to shade their bids to move closer to market consensus. This also helps to avoid winner's curse. " " Named for William Vickrey )called Dutch Auction in the financial community( Highest bidder wins, but pays only the price offered by second bidder ,
Sealing is imperative. ! " " The uniform second-price auction is commonly called the Vickrey auction. The bids are sealed, and each bidder is ignorant of other bids. The item is awarded to highest bidder at a price equal to the second-highest bid )or highest unsuccessful bid(. winner pays less than the highest bid.
Example Suppose bidder A bids $10, bidder B bids $15, and bidder C offers $20, bidder C would win, however he would only pay the price of the second-highest bid, namely $15. - , , " " When auctioning multiple units, all winning bidders pay for the items at the same price the highest losing price.
It seems obvious that a seller would make more money by using a first-price auction, but, in fact, that has been shown to be untrue. Bidders fully understand the rules and modify their bids as circumstances dictate. Bid adjustment In the case of a Vickrey auction, bidders adjust upward. No one is deterred out of fear that he will pay too high a price.
Aggressive bidders receive sure and certain awards but pay a price closer to market consensus. The price that winning bidder pays is determined by competitors' bids alone and does not depend upon any action the bidder undertakes. Less bid shading occurs because people don't fear winner's curse. Bidders are less inclined to compare notes before an auction. Vickery Strategy The dominant strategy for a bidder in a Vickrey )secondprice( auction is to submit a bid equal to his true reservation price because he then accepts all offers below his reservation bid and none that are above. )according to Paul Milgrom( A participant who bids less is more likely to lose the
auction and all that strategy accomplishes is to lower the chance of victory. Bidding high carries the risk of winner's curse. Neither affects the price paid if he wins. Vickery Strategy )cont.( When each bidder adopts a strategy of bidding his true price, the outcome is that the item is awarded to the bidder with the highest valuation at a price equal to the second highest valuation. The existence of a dominant strategy means that bidder can determine his own sealed bid without regard for the
actions of others. So a second-price auction duplicates the principal characteristics of an English auction. A potential drawback is that this system requires total honesty from the auctioneer)s(. If the auctioneer is not trustworthy, he could open the bids, find the winner and insert a new bid just barely under that to ensure higher revenues. Auction types: Double Auctions
Both bidders and sellers submit bids, asks. Has roots in haggling Offers are ranked. Double dutch auction runs two sequential clocks. Probably very attractive when computerized. ? What is a Reverse Auction? , Reverse Auctions are downward price auctions in which suppliers continue to lower their prices until the auction closes. Buyers watch as competitors Synopsis lower price in real time.
AA New New Pricing Pricing Tool: Tool: Market Market will will likely likely drive drive prices prices down. down. Choice Choice can can be be on on price price or or
best best value. value. Request for Proposal Analyze Proposals for Responsibility Responsiveness Reverse Auction Choose winning proposal Award Contract Award Contract
! 1 2 3 4
4 3 2 1 Reverse Auctions Achieving Savings On-Line Suppliers
$ GCN Illustration by Michael J. Bechetti DOD and Other Federal Agencies Reverse Auctions Priceline.com ?
! Items Commercial Industry has Auctioned Surplus Assets Chemicals Food Ingredients Road Salt Home & Personal Care Vitamin Premix Ferroalloy Molten Sulfur Chlorine & Caustic Soda Sulfuric Acid Packaging Pallets Corrugated Polymer Bags
Labels Injection Molded Plastics Folding Cartons Packaging Adhesive Plastics Blow Molded Plastic Injection Molded Plastics Die Cut Foam Conduit Molded Rubber Electronics Computer Monitors Switches Resistors Capacitors Printed Circuit Boards Insulators
Control Panel Assemblies Electro-Mechanical Transformers Solenoids Wire Harnesses Services Car Rental Temporary Services Telecom Installation Ground Transportation Machine Tool Repair Construction Site Prep Ocean Freight US Broker Services Construction Services Security Guard Services Tax Prep Services Hotel Rooms
Aerospace Parts Locomotives Stamping Presses Construction Equipment Equipment Fork Lifts Broaching Machines Mobile Equipment Earth Moving Equipment Top Plates Valves Injection Molding Machines Bridge Crane Cutting Tools Miscellaneous Lumber
Tempered Safety Glass Promotional Items Crankshaft Gages PC Peripherals Pipes, Valves & Fittings Metals Aluminum Steel Titanium Metal Castings Commercial Machinings Aerospace Machinings Metal Stampings Springs Magnesium Copper Electrical Steel Aerospace Metals
Service Center Metals Cold Headed Components Specialty Forgings Fasteners Stainless Steel Metal Forging Wire Mesh Energy Coal Electricity Diesel Fuel Other auction types
Simultaneous bidding )Japanese( Haphazard )random( order Handshake )Chinese( format Whisper Candle-light )time-interval( Silent Swiss )with regrets!( Seller and Consumer Behavior at Auctions
Seller profits: function of arrival rate, auction length, and number of units at auction Auction prices not necessarily the lowest Reasons include herd behavior )tendency to gravitate toward, and bid for, auction listing with one or more existing bids( Unintended results of participating in auctions: Winners regret Sellers lament Losers lament Consumer trust also an important motivating factor in auctions When Auction Markets Fail: Fraud and Abuse in Auctions Auction markets are particularly prone to fraud 2005 IC3 statistics:
81% of Internet fraud complaints concerned online auctions Median lost: $200 Most common fraudulent payment mechanism: money orders and credit cards Sniping http://www.esnipe.com http://www.BidNip.com http://www.auctionstealer.com http://auctionblitz.com Auctions could be trouble...
Auction Collusion and Tricks According to Fraud.org, online auctions were the #1 source (68%) of complaints in some years. Auction Collusion and Tricks
ALL auction types can be manipulated ) ( Serious problem with trust Hence need for escrow, credit, evaluation and performance data on , participants. Rings, cartels and ' , , enforcement
" " sniping Understand how the auction works. Ask about delivery, returns, warranties and service. ,
Check out the seller. Check out buyers and shills. Traceroute? Be especially careful if the seller is a private individual. identifying information.
Be wary of claims about collectibles. Use common sense to guide you. Get a physical address and other , , , ! Pay the safest way.
Let the auction site know if you have a problem. It is their business. Shilling, sniping, rings, Escrow, Credit. Performance data Make use of http://www.ftc.gov, http://www.fraud.org Online Auction trust, ratings and User Profiles ? Some other things for auction Blood, kidneys, wombs, virginity, soul Concluding Thought for the Day
MBAs for Auction? Auction resources http://www.internetauctionlist.com/ the internet auction list http://www.AuctionAnything.com http://www.ebay.com Auction resources Frictionless Commerce? MySimon BotSpot
DealPilot, Nextag.com Froogle.com for price comparison and haggling Israeli auction sites, agents in auctions http://www.michraz-Ilmedina.co.il http://www.2bid.co.il http://www.vshop.co.il/ http://www.priceit.co.il/ http://www.rusure.com/
http://www.netaction.co. il http://www.4sale.co.il/ http://www.10bid.com/ http://www.olsale.co.il/ http://
www.bigdeal.co.il/ http:// Conclusions Online auctions are becoming extremely popular because retailing is moving away from a fixed-price paradigm to negotiation to be able to follow their customers valuations; online auctions have wide geographic reach; automated negotiations are cheaper and faster. It is also a vibrant research area since the research on automated negotiations and their idiosyncrasies has just
started. Benefits of Auctions Liquidity Price discovery Price transparency Market efficiency Lower transaction costs Consumer aggregation Network effects
Risks and Costs of Auctions for Consumers and Businesses Delayed consumption costs Monitoring costs Possible solutions include: Fixed pricing Watch lists Proxy bidding Equipment costs Trust risks Possible solutionrating systems )not always successful( Fulfillment costs
Internet Auction Basics Internet auctions are different from traditional auctions Tend to go on much longer )usually a week( Have a variable number of bidders who come and go from auction arena Market power and bias in dynamically priced markets Where number of buyers and sellers is few or equal: neutral Where one or small number of sellers and many buyers: seller bias Where many sellers and few buyers: buyer bias
Internet Auction Basics )contd( Price Allocation Rules Uniform pricing rule: Multiple winners who all pay the same price Discriminatory pricing rule: Winners pay different amount depending on what they bid Bias in Dynamically Priced Markets Types of Auctions
English auctions: Easiest to understand and most common Single item up for sale to single seller Highest bidder wins Traditional Dutch auction Uses a clock visible to all that displays starting price, ticks down until buyer stops it Dutch Internet auction Public ascending price, multiple units Final price is lowest successful bid, which sets price for all higher bidders Types of Auctions )contd(
Name Your Own Price Auctions Pioneered by Priceline Users specify what they are willing to pay for goods or services and multiple providers bid for their business Prices do not descend and are fixed Types of Auctions )contd( Group Buying Auctions )Demand Aggregators( Facilitate group buying of products at dynamically adjusted discount prices based on high volume purchases Based on two principles Sellers are more likely to offer discounts to buyers
purchasing in volume Buyers increase their purchases as prices fall Professional Service AuctionsElance.com Auction Aggregatorsuse Web crawlers to search thousands of Web auction sites and accumulate information on products, bids, auction duration, etc. Unlicensed aggregators opposed by eBay When to Use Auctions )And For What( In Business Factors to consider: Type of product Product life cycle Channel management Type of auction Initial pricing Bid increments
Auction length Number of items Price allocation rule Closed vs. open bidding Auction Solution Providers for Business Some provide software that enable firm to host auctions on their own Web site Some have developed tools that allow a business to transfer information from its product database directly to multiple auction sites automatically Promotional Items
Plastic Shopping Baskets Photo Film Plastic Sheet Protectors Cameras 40% 30% 20% 60% 36% 22% 20% 10% 6%
0% Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Bar Code Supplies Paint Markers Safety Supplies 40% 48% $405,000 Savings 30% 29% 21% 20% 10% 0%
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Pump Repair Stand-by Generator
40% Conference Services AV Equipment Printing Signs & Banners PVC Conduit 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Day 10 11 12
11 12 13 14 15 Saved $6 Million Over 3 Events = 42% Average Savings Business Cards Stationary Supplies Promotional Items 40% 49%
44% 30% 26% 20% 10% 0% Day 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 ":
http://www.moital.gov.il/NR/exeres/800833FA-109D-4837-8A22-00244D1D6AA0.htm """ " http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF3ybaPR1N8 )eBay shows off auction app for the iPhone) eBay http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDwQiErBj_M http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/createpdf.cfm?articleid=1245 [email protected] What Consumers -- and Retailers -- Should Know about Dynamic Pricing ? :
, , ? ? : , . : , , ,. Valuation, Reserve price , , , , . ?QUESTIONS "
[email protected] http://rafaeli.net eBay Swoopo " " 28/3/2010 "- " ""; ' " "; " " . ,Swoopo " ( ) ,"eBay IT. Swoopo "--" - . ; , . , 60 , 12- . , 500 240- . , 240 , 2,000-; Swoopo 240 , 1,200 , 500 . , . ' , "- " , 26 Swoopo' 1,000 .
' 2,452 , . , Swoopo , . , , , . ""; " "; . , . , "" . . - . : "" . . , , , . Swoopo , , . 26 , . - . - . , , : , Swoopo- 50%- . , , . ( Swoopo- ) , - , . " ". : " " . , , , . ? . Swoopoo.