Advanced Profiling of Unemployed in Public Employment ...

Advanced Profiling of Unemployed in Public Employment ...

Advanced Profiling of Unemployed in Public Employment Services A Critical Review of OECD Experiences and Applications for Western Balkans Vienna, March 4, 2014 Artan Loxha Social Protection Unit Europe and Central Asia Region Outline 1. Profiling in the context of activation 2. Best practice profiling methods in OECD 3. Statistical profiling and applications 4. Relevance for Western Balkans Outline 1. Profiling in the context of activation 2. Best practice profiling methods in OECD 3. Statistical profiling and applications 4. Relevance for Western Balkans

Key elements of activation Mutual obligations principle Activation models Liberal model Social democratic model Continental corporatist model Restricted ALMPs to incentivize jobseeker Extensive services and high benefit levels and coverage Individual responsibility to mobilize own assets, with key state role

PR O Key elements of effective activation FI LI N Enhanced responsibilities of the unemployed - Active job search and availability for work in return for income support Provision of income support - Access to income support and to public employment services G

- Individualized action-planning - Focus on high risk prioritization Operationalizing legislation through 4 main elements of activation - Service integration between PES and SA - Enhanced performancebased subcontracting 4 The traditional role of the PES Interventions Intensive counseling and special ALMPs Vocational training Traditional

PES client: the unemployed Self-service and job matching Level of prioritization by caseworker HIGH LOW 1 Income support/Job matching Time 5 Reinventing the role of PES in the context activation Early interventions FI LI

N Interventions G 2 Work-able vulnerable population Traditional PES client: the unemployed 1 Distance from labor market HIGH

High risk group HIGH Intensive counseling and special ALMPs Middle risk group Vocational training Low risk group Self-service and job matching Level of prioritization by caseworker PR O LOW

LOW 1 Income support/Job matching Time 6 Main uses of profiling 1 2 High risk group Middle risk group Low risk group LOW

HIGH Level of prioritization by caseworker Vulnerable work-able population Distance from labor market HIGH LOW 3 Referral Intensive counseling and special ALMPs Vocational training Self-service

and job matching $ Redistributing resources based on severity of profile Interventions Caseworker Client segmentation Targeting Resource planning 7 Profiling involves certain information asymmetries Caseworker 1

LOW 2 High risk group Middle risk group Low risk group HIGH Level of prioritization by caseworker Vulnerable work-able population Distance from labor market HIGH Interventions 3 Referral

Intensive counseling and special ALMPs Vocational training Self-service and job matching LOW Information asymmetries 8 Outline 1. Profiling in the context of activation 2. Best practice profiling methods in OECD 3. Statistical profiling and applications 4. Relevance for Western Balkans Approach for studying OECD best practices 1: Stock-taking Partner with Public Employment Services (PES) in OECD countries to capture best practices on jobseeker profiling 2: Adaptation

Identify models that could be applicable to Europe and Central Asia (ECA) PES, and test them through analysis of administrative data 3: Sharing with clients Share knowledge with PES in ECA region and explore possible pilots 4: Dissemination Enhance knowledge of all stakeholders through a Knowledge Brief, analytical paper, and conference 10 Methodology

Countries Desk research Australia Canada Denmark Finland Germany Ireland Netherlands Slovenia South Korea USA Sweden Switzerland OECD activation country notes EU PES-to-PES dialogue papers Country-specific papers on profiling

Selected academic papers Methodological notes on statistical profiling PES material Study tour (selected examples) Ireland, Department of Social Protection Technical description of JSCI (AUS) Employeefocused Integration concept (GE) The Dutch Work Profiler (NL) Slovenian

profiling system (SL) Denmark, National Labor Authority Sweden, Public Employment Service 11 Key approaches to profiling in OECD Approaches Description Pros/Cons Country examples Caseworker-based segmentation Profiling and referral done primarily by the caseworker Pros: individual needs

German 4-phase model Time-based segmentation Segmentation based on threshold in length of unemployment spell Pros: straightforward Demographic segmentation Segmentation based on eligibility criteria Pros: straightforward Segmentation based on statistical analysis using MIS data Pros: ex-ante equal treatment, early interv., resource rationing USAs Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services Cons: misidentification

Irish profiling system Pros: greater private information German Kompetenzdiagnostik (competence diagnostics) Statistical segmentation Behavioral segmentation Evaluation using behavioral assessment tools Cons: subjective assessment Cons: resource waste, ignores heterogeneity. Irelands wait-and-see approach prior to the crisis Swedish Youth Job Program Cons: ignores heterogeneity

Cons: subjective 12 Degree of caseworker discretion Classifying profiling systems Complexity of data flow and processing 13 1. Data availability and processing Basic demographics - Personal ID Age Gender Children Education level Labor market data - Employment status

Duration Special needs Qualifications Complexity of data and processing Complex data - Soft and hard skills Motivation Behavior Health 14 2. Degree of caseworker discretion Degree of caseworker discretion HIGH - More likely to rely on caseworker-based diagnostics for segmenting jobseekers Caseworker resistance to automation may be higher More time-intensive and resource intensive Requires higher capacity

However, caseworkers discretion can be curtailed depending on how binding data processing is to their decision-making - More likely to rely on administrative rules and regulations for segmenting jobseekers - Less caseworker resistance to introducing other analytical tools may help address different constraints LOW 15 Classifying profiling systems Degree of caseworker discretion HIGH Caseworker-based profiling Data-assisted profiling Rules-based

profiling Data-only profiling Complexity of data flow and processing LOW LOW HIGH 16 Key trade-offs Invest in more caseworkers Caseworker-based profiling Rules-based profiling Data-assisted profiling Higher

caseworker resistance to automation Degree of caseworker discretion HIGH in st kers e Inv wor ata se d ca and Invest in data acquisition Data-only profiling Complexity of data flow and processing LOW LOW HIGH 17

Profiling systems in OECD 18 Outline 1. Profiling in the context of activation 2. Best practice profiling methods in OECD 3. Statistical profiling and applications 4. Relevance for Western Balkans Statistical profiling: segmenting clients based on likelihood of work-resumption work-resumption Outcomes Profiling model: Data input: - MIS Ad-hoc extra data -

Binary or duration models Risk of remaining long-term unemployed HIGH 100 2 1 LOW Little chance of reemployment Better chance of reemployment Improved chance of reemployment Best chance of reemployment Intervention strategies by client profile and support intensity

Near Missed opportunities Better chance of reemployment Improved chance of reemployment Frequency of Intervention Client Distance from Labour Market Far Directive Guidance Reference to Personal Development Job Search Best chance of reemployment Wasted resources Self-Serve

Low Intensity of Support High 21 Ireland: statistical profiling for case management intensity Sweden: statistical profiling for ALMP prioritization Registration and initial interview Segmentation based on risk groups Statistical profiling model Final caseworker decision GROUP 1 Very good employment prospects GROUP 2 Good employment

prospects Registration 1 Assessment Support Tool 2 GROUP 3 Weak employment prospects GROUP 4 At high risk of LTU; early ALMP measures needed 3 Caseworker likely to override regular procedures and provide early ALMP interventions 23 Assessment Support Tool

24 Australia: statistical profiling for steering private contractors 25 Australia: statistical profiling for steering private contractors 26 Outline 1. Profiling in the context of activation 2. Best practice profiling methods in OECD 3. Statistical profiling and applications 4. Relevance for Western Balkans Relevance to the Western Balkans New focus on activation Descriptive profiling revealed high heterogeneity of clients in PES Need to manage and focus scarce resources Already have a functioning (little exploited) MIS Can be integrated as part of a larger reform

Main challenge: define specific ALMPs for each client segment (taking heterogeneity into account) 28 Key implementation lessons Data availability and nature of unemployment determine accuracy and feasibilty of profiling tool Apply to critical spot in process management where profiling adds value, not just another tool Pilot a lot on the ground, prepare clear guidelines to manage implications of tool on day to day case management Reduce/manage perceptions of de professionalization of case workers, find where it adds value to their work 29 Contacts Artan Loxha Labor Market Consultant, World Bank [email protected] Matteo Morgandi Economist, World Bank [email protected] 30

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • CAMPBELL BIOLOGY IN FOCUS URRY  CAIN  WASSERMAN  MINORSKY

    CAMPBELL BIOLOGY IN FOCUS URRY CAIN WASSERMAN MINORSKY

    Deposit a matrix of collagen and calcium phosphate: hardens into the mineral ... Their salt glands allow these animals to gain net water intake by drinking seawater. ... filtered fluid, called the filtrate, contains waste products along with water, electrolytes,...
  • Introduction to Managerial Accounting

    Introduction to Managerial Accounting

    Pool First-Stage Cost Assignment 3-* Unit-Level Activity Batch-Level Activity Facility-Level Activity Product-Level Activity Graphic Example of Activity-Based Costing Various Manufacturing Overhead Costs Products $/DLH $/MH $/Setup $/Order $/MH $/Part Type Second-Stage Allocations Labor Related Pool Machine Related Pool Setup Pool...
  • Drawing Hydrocarbon Structures Alkanes: Straight Chain Hydrocarbons  Draw

    Drawing Hydrocarbon Structures Alkanes: Straight Chain Hydrocarbons Draw

    Drawing Hydrocarbon Structures Alkanes: Straight Chain Hydrocarbons Draw Methane: Draw Ethane: Drawing Alkanes: Draw Propane Draw Butane Draw the Alcohols: Straight chain hydrocarbons with an -OH Methanol Ethanol Draw the Alcohols Draw Propanol Draw Butanol Remember the 2 is an...
  • Victorian Regulatory Change Measurement (RCM) - Rogers Carlisle

    Victorian Regulatory Change Measurement (RCM) - Rogers Carlisle

    Regulatory Change Measurement (RCM) is a methodology to measure reductions in regulatory burden. RCM refines and replaces the Victorian Standard Cost Model methodology (focused on administrative costs only) from 1 January 2010.
  • Time Value of Money Jim Bice Activity Plan

    Time Value of Money Jim Bice Activity Plan

    Time Value of Money Jim Bice Activity Plan Overview Equations and the math behind it Activity Instructions Reminder on Excel Group activity Summary and Homework Examples of Time Value of $$$ Were the Indians cheated in the purchase of Manhattan...
  • The Asbestos in Schools Campaign - TUC

    The Asbestos in Schools Campaign - TUC

    Asbestos in Schools: The need for action. Julie Winn. ... On gas masks, we became aware, thanks to one of the NUT's regional officers drawing it to our attention, that some schools were allowing pupils and staff to handle or...
  • Toward the Horizon

    Toward the Horizon

    This usually can put extraordinary pressure on children to adapt. Stress is any unusual demand for adaptation that forces us to call upon our energy sources. Latchkey Children The proportion of children who take care of themselves after school -...
  • North Toronto Collegiate Institute TDSBs Redevelopment Projects Davisville-Yonge

    North Toronto Collegiate Institute TDSBs Redevelopment Projects Davisville-Yonge

    Ryerson Community School, was approved in 2011. ... Provide a north‐south private mews connection for safe school bus drop‐off, while also creating a pedestrian‐friendly public realm for community use during non‐school hours.